Upcoming Predictions
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By 2025 Atlas-style robots will be used on the battlefield as ground forces. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-05-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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Electronic Arts to survive to 2025 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 12 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal “Braincap.” Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2026-01-01.
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Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are) ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Sony to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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MDMA to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Runescape will still exist by 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2026-01-01.
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Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-05; known on 2026-01-01.
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Google Search will be less popular than a product from OpenAI by 2026 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elecnix on 2022-12-10; known on 2026-01-01.
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At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-02; known on 2026-01-01.
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Adobe to survive to 2025 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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I will move out of Austin by 2025 ( 25% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2026-01-01.
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PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 20% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.
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Cystic Fibrosis to be a curable illness by 2025 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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SomethingAwful to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Consensus that B/Yamagata influenza completed eliminated by January 1, 2026. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-31; known on 2026-01-01.
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By the end of 2025 speech to text software "will be just below the level of a trained stenographer with something like 80% probability, and “solved” (somewhat above that level in many different languages) with 30% probability. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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GDF-11 to be demonstrated to convincingly increase lifespan by 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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Alien invasion, real or faked by end of 2025. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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Nintendo to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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cannabinoids to be demonstrated to increase lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2026-01-01.
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Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Within 5 years of initial release of mRNA vaccines, they will be recognized to cause serious side effects lasting >6 months in at least 1 in 5000 cases. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-22; known on 2026-01-01.
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California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01.
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Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-28; known on 2026-01-01.
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> 50% of new PC games to have a Linux port by 2025 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-03.
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A study will be done showing that cannabidiol increases lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Yale to become a top-15 Computer Science program by 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Ada/Cardano to go above $1 by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2026-01-01.
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At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2015-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Law enforcement in the USA is/has been pressuring ISPs to secretly configure router settings to spy on suspects ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-09-04; known on 2026-01-01.
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We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Slashdot to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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gnxp.com to last to 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Ketamine to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will be a House Mouse that lives up to 6 years by 2025 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Steam to remain as #1 digital distribution platform for gaming by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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New York Times to have higher readership in 2025 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2026-01-01.
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Christopher P. McKay to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 51% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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Will Wright to do an IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.