What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 70% confidence )
Created by Paul.David.Carr 12 days ago; known on 2025-06-22.
ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 80% confidence )
Created by muflax 3 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
Created by Paul.David.Carr 5 days ago; known on 2024-12-31.
Created by themusicgod1 4 days ago; known on 2031-04-26.
Created by Paul.David.Carr 5 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.