What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Created by linkhyrule5 10 days ago; known in 4 days.
Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late. ( 62% confidence )
Created by JohnWittle 2 days ago; known in about 5 hours.
By 2030, same-sex marriage will be legal everywhere in the US. ( 75% confidence )
Created by MTGandP 8 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
Created by tedks 1 day ago; known in about 20 hours.
“The power the Dark Lord knows not” is ability to make altruist plans. ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod 10 days ago; known in 13 days.