What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Created by qznc 9 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
Created by from3004 11 days ago; known on 2014-12-31.
Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 80% confidence )
Created by qznc 9 days ago; known on 2015-10-21.
Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 27% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades 12 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
Created by assmaster 12 days ago; known on 2015-02-01.