What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 0% confidence )
Created by gwern 13 days ago; known on 2026-10-07.
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No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about ( 93% confidence )
Created by bobpage 14 days ago; known on 2017-06-01.
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'President Mike Pence' ( 37% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 9 days ago; known on 2024-12-31.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor ( 90% confidence )
Created by two2thehead 13 days ago; known on 2036-10-07.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 10 days ago; known on 2017-01-15.