What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker 14 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.
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Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker 6 days ago; known on 2072-12-31.
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I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor 10 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.
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Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern 6 days ago; known on 2013-08-14.