What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 15% confidence )
Created by gwern 13 days ago; known on 2037-03-17.
Created by sdr 10 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
Created by two2thehead 2 days ago; known on 2018-01-15.
North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 85% confidence )
Created by two2thehead 6 days ago; known on 2018-01-15.
Rachel Maddow commits suicide in 2017 ( 6% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 11 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.