What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 11 days ago; known on 2016-10-01.
A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 99% confidence )
Created by two2thehead 11 days ago; known on 2016-07-29.
Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 4% confidence )
Created by gwern 12 days ago; known on 2016-12-17.
Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 68% confidence )
Created by splorridge 4 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.