What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Created by bobpage 7 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 11 days ago; known on 2036-12-31.
The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sdr 11 days ago; known on 2026-01-01.
Hilary wins California democratic primary. ( 85% confidence )
Created by ioannes 6 days ago; known in 27 days.
A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes 6 days ago; known on 2016-12-01.