What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 5% confidence )
Created by Jach 13 days ago; known on 2016-04-01.
Created by Raahul_Kumar 12 days ago; known on 2022-12-25.
Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 13 days ago; known on 2016-05-01.
AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 85% confidence )
Created by lavalamp 9 days ago; known on 2016-03-30.
Created by bobpage 11 days ago; known on 2016-11-09.