What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Created by JoshuaZ 7 days ago; known on 2016-02-01.
Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 98% confidence )
Created by James Babcock 13 days ago; known on 2016-11-09.
Created by JoshuaZ 2 days ago; known on 2016-11-12.
Created by btrettel 4 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.
Ukraine will default on its debt ( 100% confidence )
Created by Raahul_Kumar 5 days ago; known on 2015-12-27.