What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Leo 2 days ago; known in 12 days.
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Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 2 days ago; known in 1 day.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav 6 days ago; known on 2016-01-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern 4 days ago; known on 2112-01-01.
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PredictionBook will display users’ Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav 2 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.