What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ren 11 days ago; known on 2015-11-08.
Created by Mathias Zaman 3 days ago; known on 2015-04-15.
I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 100% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod 13 days ago; known on 2015-10-16.
I will upgrade my computer by January ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod 5 days ago; known on 2015-01-16.