What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 75% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 11 days ago; known on 2016-01-01.
By April 1 either at least one user on LW will be either banned or publicly reprimanded for abusing the karma system or it will be determined that Eugine_Nier is still using multiple accounts to push the karma system in a way that strongly favors his poli ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 7 days ago; known on 2015-04-01.
Created by Faceh 2 days ago; known on 2016-11-09.
HPMOR : Quirrel has the resurrection stone. ( 60% confidence )
Created by claz 2 days ago; known on 2015-03-16.
Created by JoshuaZ 7 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.