What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Created by sweeneyrod 10 days ago; known in 26 days.
Created by rebellionkid 12 days ago; known on 2015-02-10.
Created by JoshuaZ 2 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
Busy beaver number for 6 found by 2020. ( 20% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod about 20 hours ago; known on 2020-01-16.
HPMOR – Hat & Cloak is one of Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldermort, Future Harry, Lucius Malfoy, Nicholas Flamel, Baba Yaga, Severus Snape, Sirius Black, Peter Pettigrew, Gilderoy Lockhart, Grindelwald, Narcissa Malfoy, one of Hogwarts' founders, MadEye Moody, ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod 13 days ago; known on 2015-03-16.