What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nshepperd 12 days ago; known on 2100-01-01.
Bellroy and Trike will move from their West Melbourne office to the new Fitzroy office on 26th Sept. ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Lina 5 days ago; known in 6 days.
Cameron is still the leader of the Conservatives at the end of the year. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid 10 days ago; known on 2015-01-01.
“The [ebola] case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.” – Wired ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge 6 days ago; known on 2015-02-01.
Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mike 5 days ago; known on 2015-03-31.