What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 35% confidence; 22 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tenoke 6 days ago; known on 2015-01-01.
World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum 9 days ago; known on 2014-12-31.
The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern 6 days ago; known on 2015-03-07.
Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert 11 days ago; known in 20 days.
Crimea or similar territory to be recognized by at least one country as not part of Ukraine by 2016-01-01. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio 12 days ago; known on 2016-01-01.