What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Calien 14 days ago; known on 2014-12-31.
Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid 4 days ago; known in 27 days.
The current truce between Israel and Hamas will hold until at least January 15, 2015 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ 5 days ago; known on 2015-01-15.
Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TeMPOraL 8 days ago; known on 2023-12-31.
I will hand in every assignment between now and the mid semester break on time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Calien 14 days ago; known in 3 days.