What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tuxedage 12 days ago; known on 2035-01-01.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NancyLebovitz 5 days ago; known on 2018-05-19.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker 2 days ago; known on 2040-01-01.
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There exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 9 days ago; known on 2035-01-01.