What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty 10 days ago; known on 2019-08-16.
The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 28% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker 8 days ago; known on 2020-12-01.
Created by playablecharacter 13 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
Created by two2thehead 2 days ago; known on 2018-01-15.
Created by ioannes 5 days ago; known on 2017-03-01.