What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Created by JoshuaZ 9 days ago; known on 2055-01-02.
Created by btrettel 3 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor even in 2050 though, just a p ( 90% confidence )
Created by Raahul_Kumar about 21 hours ago; known on 2050-05-27.
The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data on this question ag ( 100% confidence )
Created by Raahul_Kumar 6 days ago; known on 2022-05-27.
Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Raahul_Kumar 10 days ago; known on 2022-12-27.