What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
-
Hillary Clinton will win at least 320 electoral votes in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 75% confidence )
Created by two2thehead 3 days ago; known on 2016-12-22.
-
Hillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election. ( 80% confidence )
Created by quanticle 3 days ago; known in 14 days.
-
Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 1% confidence )
Created by Dapple 11 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
-
359 – 179 Clinton Trump Electoral Result ( 50% confidence )
Created by jesselevine 3 days ago; known in 15 days.