What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal. ( 99% confidence )
Created by two2thehead 13 days ago; known on 2036-07-17.
Created by brunoparga 6 days ago; known on 2016-10-19.
Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 11% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 7 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
Katie McGinty will be elected to the Senate ( 52% confidence )
Created by predictit 10 days ago; known on 2016-11-08.
Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.