What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Raahul_Kumar 7 days ago; known on 2025-12-31.
FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence )
It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement. ( 0% confidence )
Created by Raahul_Kumar 4 days ago; known on 2020-12-25.
Created by luxpir 11 days ago; known on 2025-07-01.