What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Hillary will win the presidency ( 83% confidence )
Created by firstname.lastname@example.org 13 days ago; known on 2016-11-08.
A new ministry will be created in the Russian government. ( 90% confidence )
Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known on 2019-09-22.
If elected, Trump's presidency will lead to genocide in Syria by 2018 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ifonlyalabama 12 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.
Hillary next US president ( 70% confidence )
Created by penten 1 day ago; known on 2016-11-10.
Created by btrettel 7 days ago; known on 2017-06-02.