What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JFE 26 days ago; known in 5 months.
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Bank of England Base rate will be 1% or less on 31 December 2010 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by koenfucius 8 days ago; known in 5 months.
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I will sign up for cryonics by December 31st 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Larks 7 days ago; known in 5 months.
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I am going to make love soon ( 75% confidence )
Created by misterkeithb 12 days ago; known in about 1 month.
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I will make Wellesley ( 20% confidence )
Created by eringobraugh 15 days ago; known in 8 months.