What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by qznc 3 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades 6 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
Steam user http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197973910513/ is a cheater ( 95% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by assmaster 6 days ago; known on 2015-02-01.
I will finish reading and doing representative problems from chapters 1-4 of Ideals, Varieties, and Algorithms by David Cox by the midterm on 10/29/2014. (I started 10/16/2014) ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 8 days ago; known in 5 days.
Conditional on UKIP winning the Rochester byelection, Cameron faces an official leadership challenge within a month. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid 12 days ago; known on 2014-12-06.