What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 25% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 9 days ago; known on 2016-09-01.
No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 85% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 13 days ago; known on 2040-01-01.
By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS 13 days ago; known on 2026-01-01.
The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 50% confidence )
Created by btrettel 4 days ago; known on 2050-01-01.
The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo 4 days ago; known on 2015-10-01.