What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL 8 days ago; known on 2015-01-01.
Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by minilodon 8 days ago; known on 2014-12-31.
Barack Obama will do the Ice Bucket Challenge this year. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mathieu_Roy 8 days ago; known on 2015-01-01.
The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tdhellma 8 days ago; known on 2014-11-30.
Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern 10 days ago; known on 2024-08-12.