What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 50% confidence )
Created by btrettel 12 days ago; known on 2051-01-01.
Created by orthonormal 14 days ago; known on 2016-01-01.
The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 72% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago; known in 17 days.
Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 70% confidence )
Created by btrettel 8 days ago; known on 2030-01-02.