What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 25% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 13 days ago; known on 2065-01-01.
Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jesselevine 12 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. ( 90% confidence )
Created by FractalHeretic 7 days ago; known on 2016-11-08.
By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 5% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 4 days ago; known on 2020-04-21.
By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke ( 5% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 12 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.