What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern 2 days ago; known on 2019-04-21.
By June 2014, I will decide to stop eating wheat ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bobpage 13 days ago; known on 2014-06-01.
A Presidential election will occur in Ukraine by June 5th or a Russian invasion of Ukraine will occur. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ 2 days ago; known on 2014-06-05.
When I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve 10+% fewer problems under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by manfrom_3004 8 days ago; known on 2014-10-16.
I will get accepted to App Academy before 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo 3 days ago; known on 2015-01-01.