What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022 ( 100% confidence )
Created by Raahul_Kumar 8 days ago; known on 2022-12-12.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 18% confidence )
Created by halfwit 1 day ago; known on 2016-11-09.
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At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ( 83% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known on 2017-01-02.
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Missouri will be a swing state in 2016 (within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote). ( 50% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight 4 days ago; known on 2016-11-12.
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The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 70% confidence )
Created by quanticle 8 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.