Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
-
“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson_Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known about 10 hours ago.
-
I will have spent 10 hours emailing press outlets regarding TextMotivate.com by February 5, 2012. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Julian Pulgarin 6 days ago; known about 18 hours ago.
-
I will have open sourced Khan Academy’s gradual roll-out tool by February 5, 2012. ( 42% confidence )
Created by Julian Pulgarin 6 days ago; known about 18 hours ago.
-
Vi tager på staden før vi går iseng ( 25% confidence )
Created by OptiMind 1 day ago; known 1 day ago.
-
I got a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ahartell 19 days ago; known 1 day ago.
Recently Predicted
-
Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage 1 day ago; known on 2012-07-01.
-
There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bobpage 1 day ago; known on 2017-04-01.
-
papermachine will not donate to the Internet Archive ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by gwern 1 day ago.
-
Vi tager på staden før vi går iseng ( 25% confidence )
Created by OptiMind 1 day ago; known 1 day ago.
-
Major winter storm in the southeast before summer 2012. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by smijer 1 day ago; known on 2012-05-16.
Recently Judged
-
“Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the end of this week. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav 4 days ago; known in about 1 hour; judged wrong by Anubhav about 2 hours ago.
-
I will have done at least 10 hours of contract work by February 5, 2012. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Julian Pulgarin 6 days ago; known about 18 hours ago; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin about 3 hours ago.
-
Salminen 2012’s “reasoning abilities”/“reasoning skills” measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern 8 days ago; known in 22 days; judged wrong by gwern about 9 hours ago.
-
Average daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by gwern about 11 hours ago.
-
‘the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010’ in 2011 in Afghanistan —Capital Commentary ( 85% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern about 11 hours ago.
Recent Responses
- JoshuaZ estimated 5% on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. TBD in 6 days
- JoshuaZ estimated 35% on USA will collapse before the People’s Republic of China. TBD on 2030-01-01
- Anubhav said “Joshua: Deadline keeps getting extended until one of them collapses.” re: USA will collapse before the People’s Republic of China.
- Anubhav said “4.6k sigs to go.” re: “Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the end of this week.
- Anubhav estimated 1% on Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program TBD on 2012-07-01
- Anubhav estimated 50% on There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 TBD on 2017-04-01
- Anubhav said “5 years is a long time.” re: There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017
- Anubhav estimated 10% on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. TBD in 6 days
- ahartell said “This is looking increasingly unlikely.” re: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months.
- ahartell estimated 5% on Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program TBD on 2012-07-01
- ahartell estimated 100% on “A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted” —Bugmaster TBD on 2013-01-01
- Julian Pulgarin said “8.83 hours” re: I will have done at least 10 hours of contract work by February 5, 2012.
- gwern said “:(:(:( I’m sad not just because it was 80%, but because that absence makes the study almost useless for my DNB FAQ” re: Salminen 2012’s “reasoning abilities”/“reasoning skills” measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test.
- gwern said “http://www.psy.lmu.de/exp/people/former/strobach/publications/salminenetal2011abs.pdf is not fulltext, but strongly indicates they did not do any IQ tests ” re: Salminen 2012’s “reasoning abilities”/“reasoning skills” measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test.
- NathanMcKnight said “There must be some industry reporting. ” re: By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry.
- NathanMcKnight said “The thing is “3D printing” is pretty catchy, but “3D printed” and “will 3D print” are kinda clunky. Something like “threeing” or “threeding” would lend itself better to English grammar.” re: By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media.
- gwern said “75.28 in january 2011: http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/04/eia-reports-new-peak-in-crude-oil-at.html marking wrong” re: Average daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011
- gwern said “nope. it was 418 in 2011, and 496 in 2010. our pessimism has failed.” re: ‘the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010’ in 2011 in Afghanistan —Capital Commentary
- gwern said “closing as right per Michael Bomford’s comment there” re: “The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.”
- papermachine estimated 5% on I will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month. TBD 4 days ago, so judge them!
- gwern said “defined how?” re: Major winter storm in the southeast before summer 2012.
- gwern estimated 4% on Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program TBD on 2012-07-01
- gwern said “hah, yeah, that’s not happening” re: Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program
- gwern estimated 75% on There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 TBD on 2017-04-01
- gwern said “big public commitment, useful, only costs them a few million” re: There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017
- JoshuaZ estimated 5% on Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. TBD on 2017-01-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 80% on By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. TBD on 2050-01-01
- Jayson_Virissimo said “http://www.adafruit.com/blog/2012/02/05/83-year-old-woman-got-3d-printed-mandible/” re: By 2050, body modification enthusiasts will have printed custom body augmentations through 3D printing technology.