Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2012-03-22; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01.
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“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01.
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“Holden will be the first car-maker to close its Australian factories during the current recession.” —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01.
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‘China will have more tech IPOs than the U.S.’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01.
Recently Predicted
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I will achieve a passing score on both practice tests. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo 37 minutes ago; known in 2 days; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 10 minutes ago.
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I will achieve a passing score on practice test #2. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo 38 minutes ago; known in 2 days.
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I will achieve a passing score on practice test #1. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo 41 minutes ago; known in about 9 hours; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 11 minutes ago.
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Google will get involved in a case brought by European regulators for antitrust or privacy issues before mid 2013 ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker about 3 hours ago; known on 2013-06-01.
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NY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker about 3 hours ago; known on 2012-12-31.
Recently Judged
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I will achieve a passing score on both practice tests. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo 37 minutes ago; known in 2 days; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 10 minutes ago.
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I will achieve a passing score on practice test #1. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo 41 minutes ago; known in about 9 hours; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 11 minutes ago.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo 1 day ago; known about 15 hours ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo about 14 hours ago.
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Facebook will fall below it’s offering price ($38) next week ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker 3 days ago; known in 4 days; judged right by RandomThinker about 17 hours ago.
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I will complete chapter 18 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo 1 day ago; known about 15 hours ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo about 20 hours ago.
Recent Responses
- Jayson Virissimo said “I got a 74%; 80% was needed to pass..” re: I will achieve a passing score on practice test #1.
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 65% on I will achieve a passing score on both practice tests. TBD in 2 daysand was wrong
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on I will achieve a passing score on practice test #2. TBD in 2 days
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on I will achieve a passing score on practice test #1. TBD in about 9 hoursand was wrong
- RandomThinker estimated 65% on Google will get involved in a case brought by European regulators for antitrust or privacy issues before mid 2013 TBD on 2013-06-01
- RandomThinker said “They’re talking about it now. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/nyregion/new-york-taxi-fares-may-soon-go-up.html?hp” re: NY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year.
- RandomThinker estimated 65% on NY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year. TBD on 2012-12-31
- RandomThinker said “He looks old and no one can figure out the plot” re: Skyfall (James Bond movie) will do worse than expected (4 wk gross < 170m @ HSX)
- RandomThinker estimated 65% on Skyfall (James Bond movie) will do worse than expected (4 wk gross < 170m @ HSX) TBD on 2012-12-31
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson TBD on 2030-01-01
- Ken estimated 30% on Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017) TBD on 2017-01-01
- Ken estimated 90% on Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 TBD on 2013-01-01
- Ken estimated 2% on “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson TBD on 2030-01-01
- RandomThinker said “That was fast. It started today @ 35.” re: Facebook will fall below it’s offering price ($38) next week
- Jayson Virissimo said “I got a little behind. I have a few hundred cards to review tonight.” re: I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours.
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. TBD about 15 hours agoand was correct
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% on I will complete chapter 18 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. TBD about 15 hours agoand was correct
- Jayson Virissimo said “Yeah, I thought only Chuck Norris could out-medal himself.” re: GB will out-medal GB in the 2012 olympic games
- RandomThinker said “How can a country outmedal itself?” re: GB will out-medal GB in the 2012 olympic games
- gwern said “false because it was 17%; the significance was p-value < 2.2e-16, however.” re: Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period, and the difference will be significant at p<0.05
- gwern said “previous daily average: 9.14 clicks a day. after daily average: 1.61 clicks a day, or 17.6%. dammit!” re: Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period.
- JoshuaZ said “http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2012/5/10/admissions-yield-2016-action/ went up to 81 percent. Did not see that coming. ” re: Harvard’s yield for the class of 2016 will be 76% or below.
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. TBD on 2012-07-01
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% on I will complete chapter 17 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. TBD 1 day agoand was correct