Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
-
I will go to south africa ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Happypenguin 9 months ago; known 13 days ago.
-
I’ll be done with my 9 holes by 10:50 AM ( 65% confidence )
Created by thetheepic1 17 days ago; known 17 days ago.
-
Dal Segno Studios will have 100 students by the time I leave for Europe in May ( 80% confidence )
Created by tiffany 4 months ago; known 24 days ago.
Recently Predicted
-
I will sign up for cryonics by December 31st 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Larks 7 days ago; known in 5 months.
-
Bank of England Base rate will be 1% or less on 31 December 2010 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by koenfucius 8 days ago; known in 5 months.
-
Dow jones breaking through 12000 before end july ( 30% confidence )
Created by Conbruce 10 days ago; known in 1 day; judged wrong by koenfucius 8 days ago.
Recently Judged
-
‘Dockers’ will defeat ‘Crows’ in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor 4 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged right by gwern about 3 hours ago.
-
‘Crows’ will defeat ‘Dockers’ in Round 1 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by AFL_Predictor 4 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 3 hours ago.
-
‘Bulldogs’ will defeat ‘Magpies’ in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor 4 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 3 hours ago.
Recent Responses
- gwern said “wow.” re: United States will invade Australia and take over
- gwern is 97% against USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 in over 2 years; how sure are you?
- gwern said “those bases in Kuwait and elsewhere are pretty much permanent. and it takes a long time to wind down enormous bases like that even if we wanted to…” re: USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012
- gwern said “marked wrong for being vague and having wrong date.” re: They will never cure cancer in our lifetimes.
- gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_2010#Summary_of_results nope” re: Carlton will make 2010 Afl Finals
- gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympique_de_Marseille” re: L’OM sera-t-il champion de France en 2010 ?
- gwern said “quite right: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Victorian_storms” re: the wind in melbourne will cause damage to properties and injure many