Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Tico 1. Deliver on time 80% 2. Be well received 70% https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/mobvoi/ticwatch-2-the-most-interactive-smartwatch/description ( 60% confidence )
Created by Shekerev on 2016-08-06; known 3 days ago.
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I will pass my exams ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Shekerev on 2016-07-21; known 3 days ago.
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I will successfully arrive at my destination when travelling on 14/10/16 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge 15 days ago; known 3 days ago.
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In 2 years I will conclude that bombing IS was net negative. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-25; known 24 days ago.
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I will pass comps. ( 85% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2015-08-10; known 29 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Socrates1024's Dockerfile scripts still work 10 years from now ( 31% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 about 18 hours ago; known on 2026-10-18.
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08e7d33f4ee5c2357aec272a798dcb369b3bbff54214d1b0161e8d38982b387f ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bobpage 1 day ago; known on 2017-04-01.
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Julian Assange died before this prediction was made ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage 1 day ago; known on 2017-01-01.
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One week from today, I will weight less than or equal to 169 lbs ( 80% confidence )
Created by helldalgo 1 day ago; known in 5 days.
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Ubuntu upgrade on Hedy the Laptop will be successful (boot to at least usable gui/network/emacs) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 3 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by themusicgod1 3 days ago.
Recently Judged
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Neumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in) ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known 3 days ago; judged right by taryneast 1 day ago.
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Neumann Space will be moderately successful (I'll be able to pay off my mortgage) ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by taryneast 1 day ago.
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Neumann Space will be extremely successful (I'll be able to retire) ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by taryneast 1 day ago.
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Neumann Space will be a resounding disaster (I'll lose a lot of money) ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by taryneast 1 day ago.
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Neumann Space will be moderate failure (I'll make no money and lose my investment) ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by taryneast 1 day ago.
Recent Responses
- themusicgod1 estimated 72% on Both the Republicans and the Democrats to each have at least 34 US Senators after the 2016 election TBD in 24 days
- themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 08e7d33f4ee5c2357aec272a798dcb369b3bbff54214d1b0161e8d38982b387f TBD on 2017-04-01
- themusicgod1 estimated 31% on Socrates1024's Dockerfile scripts still work 10 years from now TBD on 2026-10-18
- themusicgod1 estimated 36% on Julian Assange died before this prediction was made TBD on 2017-01-01
- taryneast said “If I sold my shares at the current rate i’d make quite a good return on my investment (not quite enough to pay off my mortgage, but I’d make a sizable dent). This is the prediction that best fits the current status of my holdings in NSpace.” re: Neumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in)
- taryneast said “Haven’t been able to pay off my mortgage yet, if I found a buyer for my shares I would not quite be able to do so at the current going rate.” re: Neumann Space will be moderately successful (I'll be able to pay off my mortgage)
- taryneast said “NSpace is alive and well – getting funding and good PR.” re: Neumann Space will be moderate failure (I'll make no money and lose my investment)
- taryneast said “NSpace is still alive and getting funding and good PR” re: Neumann Space will be a resounding disaster (I'll lose a lot of money)
- taryneast said “Not retired yet (may happen int he future)” re: Neumann Space will be extremely successful (I'll be able to retire)
- bobpage estimated 25% on 08e7d33f4ee5c2357aec272a798dcb369b3bbff54214d1b0161e8d38982b387f TBD on 2017-04-01
- bobpage said “‘“We have a great marriage and a strong relationship”, says Melania Trump in an interview with @AC360.’” re: Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017
- two2thehead estimated 10% on hilary clinton will not be elected TBD in 20 days
- ArturoGoosnargh estimated 30% on Trump wins the presidential election 2016 TBD in 20 days
- btrettel estimated 25% on Trump wins the presidential election 2016 TBD in 20 days
- btrettel estimated 75% on Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race TBD in 20 days
- bobpage said “http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/julian-assange-dead-rumored/” re: Julian Assange died before this prediction was made
- bobpage estimated 2% on Julian Assange died before this prediction was made TBD on 2017-01-01
- helldalgo estimated 1% on Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross TBD on 2026-10-07
- helldalgo estimated 63% on Conditional on Gary Johnson getting 15% in 5 national polls, the Commission on Presidential Debates will invite him for a debate with Trump and Hillary. TBD in about 5 hours
- helldalgo estimated 80% on One week from today, I will weight less than or equal to 169 lbs TBD in 5 days
- booradleytron estimated 60% on Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor TBD on 2036-10-07
- booradleytron said “agree w/ Dapple” re: Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor
- themusicgod1 said “Like last time… “successful”. I have gui, network, emacs. I hope one day these upgrades don’t have to be this rocky.” re: Ubuntu upgrade on Hedy the Laptop will be successful (boot to at least usable gui/network/emacs)
- themusicgod1 said “(i had to have a nap, this upgrade is exhausting)” re: Ubuntu upgrade on Hedy the Laptop will be successful (boot to at least usable gui/network/emacs)
- bobpage said “Clojure doesn’t even make the list at https://octoverse.github.com/” re: Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub
- themusicgod1 estimated 54% on One week from today, I will weigh less than 89.5kg. TBD in 4 days