I will achieve a passing score on practice test #2. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo about 1 hour ago; known in 2 days.

Google will get involved in a case brought by European regulators for antitrust or privacy issues before mid 2013 ( 65% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker about 3 hours ago; known on 2013-06-01.

NY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker about 3 hours ago; known on 2012-12-31.

Skyfall (James Bond movie) will do worse than expected (4 wk gross < 170m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker about 3 hours ago; known on 2012-12-31.

GB will out-medal GB in the 2012 olympic games ( 51% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty 2 days ago; known on 2012-08-12.

“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ 3 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

India will overtake US as Facebook’s biggest market by end of 2015 — CNBC, Gartner ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 4 days ago; known on 2015-12-31.

I’ll organize another LW-meetup this year. ( 70% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 6 days ago; known on 2012-11-16.

App Store revenues will break $10,000 for the first 30 days after app launch. ( 10% confidence )

Created by gsaines 6 days ago; known on 2012-06-26.

Batman the Dark Knight Rises will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 415m on HSX) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker 7 days ago; known on 2012-08-31.

Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern 8 days ago; known on 2013-08-14.

The movie Battleship will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 107.2m per HSX) ( 65% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker 8 days ago; known on 2012-07-01.

Avengers will outgross Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 (global box office > 1.32b) ( 85% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker 8 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

Avengers will outgross Titanic (global box office > 2.18b) ( 60% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker 8 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

Avengers will outgross Avatar (global box office > 2.78b) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 8 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 8 days ago; known on 2072-12-31.

Europe will abandon austerity policy by end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 8 days ago; known on 2013-12-31.

Rondo will end up with more career playoff triple doubles than Larry Bird (he’ll pass Bird by 2015) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 9 days ago; known on 2015-07-01.

I will pass my Geometry course. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by acephalus 9 days ago; known on 2012-08-22.

There’ll be another big trader loss incident (involving over $1b in losses) reported before end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 9 days ago; known on 2013-12-31.

Apple long-rumored TV product will not arrive in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 9 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

I will attend my Statistics exam. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by acephalus 9 days ago; known in 24 days.

I will attend my Geometry exam. ( 80% confidence )

Created by acephalus 9 days ago; known on 2012-06-22.

I will have sex with a woman before 2013. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by acephalus 9 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

The US will default on its debt in 2013 — Matthew Yglesias ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 9 days ago; known on 2013-12-31.

When I retest my IQ at the end of my n-back experiment my IQ will have increased by equal to or greater than 5 points. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 11 days ago; known on 2012-07-01.

I will still be alive in 2078. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 11 days ago; known on 2078-01-01.

Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017) ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 11 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.

There’ll be no iPad Mini in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 11 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

Rutaesomn will offer to send me some free pills. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern 11 days ago; known in 20 days.

Greece will have another election by end of June, 2012 ( 65% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker 11 days ago; known on 2012-07-01.

I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Grognor 12 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

I will squat 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 13 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I will deadlift 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 13 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before 2013. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 13 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

Tablet market will grow 5x in 5 years (424.9 million units by 2017) —NPD ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 13 days ago; known on 2018-03-01.

Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 13 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.

Apple will switch away from Samsung as the fab for its processors in iPhones and iPads by end of 2014 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 15 days ago; known on 2014-12-31.

At most 1 of the NYT profiled hot startups (Pinterest, Path, Pinwheel, Taskrabbit, Dropbox, Square, Quora, Uber, Airtime) will be acquired before the end of 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 15 days ago; known on 2013-12-31.

Facebook will buy Evernote before end of 2013 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker 16 days ago; known on 2013-12-31.

Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 16 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.

Dewey LaBoeuf (law firm) will cease to exist by the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 16 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

By the end of the summer, I will have memorized over 500 words in Italian. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pkfalu92 17 days ago; known on 2012-09-01.

By the end of the summer, I will have memorized 1000 words in Italian. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pkfalu92 17 days ago; known on 2012-09-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by papermachine 18 days ago; known on 2014-05-03.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots within the next 150 days. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 19 days ago; known on 2012-09-30.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty within the next 120 days. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 19 days ago; known on 2012-08-31.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid within the next 90 days. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 19 days ago; known on 2012-08-01.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker within the next 60 days. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 19 days ago; known on 2012-07-02.

I will attempt suicide this year ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Leo 20 days ago; known on 2013-05-03.

http://dkmvs.com/ will rank #1 on Google searches for “dick moves” in Australia ( 60% confidence )

Created by scott.arbeitman 20 days ago; known in 15 days.

Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft “got” social networking better than Google. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 20 days ago; known on 2016-12-31.

Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern 20 days ago; known on 2022-05-01.

Google will buy RIMM before the end of 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 20 days ago; known on 2013-12-31.

I will go back to China before Chirstmas this year. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by happyday 21 days ago; known on 2012-08-09.

I will finish Learn Python the Hard way by the end of the School Year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meisnewbie 22 days ago; known in 26 days.

I predict that if I logout from my account on this website, I will be unable to login again. A notification in red will appear that says “Couldn’t log you in as…” ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Selector_3 24 days ago; known 23 days ago.

Michael Green did not have any explosives on him. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RobFisher 25 days ago; known 20 days ago.

3D technologies (like 3D TV channels) will become widespread by the year 2013. Football matches will be screened in 3D as well. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Selector 25 days ago; known on 2013-01-31.

US domestic movie box office for summer in 2012 will be higher than 2011 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker 25 days ago; known on 2012-10-01.

Apple will be a trillion dollar company before end of 2016 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 26 days ago; known on 2016-12-31.

I will still learn French by the end of the year. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Emanuel Rylke 26 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

Planetary Resources won’t be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 26 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

I will listen to the entire lecture series Practicing Mindfulness: An Introduction to Meditation by Mark W. Muesse within the next 3 weeks. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 27 days ago; known 6 days ago.

GSoC 2012: “Haskell-Type-Exts” ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 27 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “multiuser browser-based interactive ghci, hpaste.org meets tryhaskell.org, for improved teaching of those new to Haskell.” ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 27 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “Enable GHC to use multiple instances of a package for compilation” ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 27 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “Sandboxed builds and isolated environments for Cabal” ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 27 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “Accelerating Haskell Application Development” ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 27 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.