Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage 1 day ago; known on 2012-07-01.

There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage 1 day ago; known on 2017-04-01.

Vi tager på staden før vi går iseng ( 25% confidence )

Created by OptiMind 1 day ago; known 1 day ago.

Major winter storm in the southeast before summer 2012. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by smijer 1 day ago; known on 2012-05-16.

USA will collapse before the People’s Republic of China. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav 2 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.

Train on Monday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith 2 days ago; known in 1 day.

Train on Sunday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith 2 days ago; known in 1 day.

I will finish the translation of the first 13 chapters of “Facing the Singularity” until the end of february. ( 81% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 2 days ago; known in 24 days.

I will get a boyfriend this year. ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo 2 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Emanuel Rylke 2 days ago; known in 4 days.

Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav 2 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.

By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight 3 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

No Tobin Tax in the EU by 2013 ( 80% confidence )

Created by modulus 3 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I’ll stop biting my nails for at least 2 consecutive weeks sometime this year. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

In 6 months I’ll have a visible sixpack. ( 73% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known on 2012-08-02.

In 6 months I can bench-press 100kg at least 3 times (on machine 13 in my fitness studio) ( 80% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known on 2012-08-02.

I’ll get a girlfriend this year. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

My grandmother will die this year. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I’ll get a prescription for modafinil this year. ( 75% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I’ll get an A in “history of psychology” ( 50% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known in 21 days.

Stopping Bupropion won’t reduce my happiness by more than 10%. ( 80% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known in 10 days.

“Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav 4 days ago; known in 21 days.

2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Anubhav 4 days ago; known on 2050-01-01.

[HPMoR] Bacon’s diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Grognor 4 days ago; known on 2013-01-16.

By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight 4 days ago; known on 2050-01-01.

Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav 4 days ago; known on 2112-02-01.

I will complete my paper to a standard acceptable to the conference review panel. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty 4 days ago; known in 1 day.

I will listen to all of Michel Thomas – Japanese Foundation, before 2013 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage 4 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

My friend’s house will be connected to fiberglass internet before 2013. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mqrius 5 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight 6 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.

GJP: #1074 Will Libyan government forces regain control* of the city of Bani Walid before 6 February 2012? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known in about 6 hours.

GJP: #1077 Will Egypt officially announce by 15 February 2012 that it is lifting* its travel ban on Americans currently in Egypt? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known in 9 days.

GJP: #1075 Will a run-off be required in the 2012 Russian presidential election? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known in 29 days.

GJP: #1070 Will Iran and the U.S. commence official nuclear program talks* before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known on 2012-04-01.

GJP: #1072 Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy before 1 April 2012? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known on 2012-04-01.

GJP: #1073 Will the IMF officially announce before 1 April 2012 that an agreement has been reached to lend Hungary an additional 15+ Billion Euros? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known on 2012-04-01.

GJP: #1076 Will the Iraqi government officially announce before 1 April 2012 that it has dropped all criminal charges against its VP Tareq al-Hashemi? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known on 2012-04-01.

I will have open sourced Khan Academy’s gradual roll-out tool by February 5, 2012. ( 42% confidence )

Created by Julian Pulgarin 6 days ago; known about 18 hours ago.

I will have spent 10 hours emailing press outlets regarding TextMotivate.com by February 5, 2012. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Julian Pulgarin 6 days ago; known about 18 hours ago.

The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight 6 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

The first 3D printer virus(es) will be reported before the end of 2012. ( 90% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight 6 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

Super Mario Bros. Z episode 9 will be released on or before November 24, 2012. ( 21% confidence )

Created by Grognor 7 days ago; known on 2012-11-24.

The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Christopher 7 days ago; known on 2012-03-24.

A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by siscoking 7 days ago; known on 2017-01-29.

I will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo 7 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

HPMOR: Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the prophecy about his defeat. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav 7 days ago; known on 2016-01-01.

Conditional on being offered a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI, I will accept. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 8 days ago; known on 2012-04-28.

gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 8 days ago; known on 2012-04-28.

Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern 8 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Human whole-genome sequencing <=$1000 by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern 8 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

HPMOR: Harry’s conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav 8 days ago; known on 2016-01-01.

I will unsubscribe from Erfworld. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern 9 days ago; known on 2012-07-27.

Jaeggi 2008 (DNB transfer to Gf) will be formally retracted within 5 years ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 9 days ago; known on 2017-01-27.

There will be working blueprints for a space elevator by 2017. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iconreforged 10 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.

Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo 10 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 11 days ago; known 7 days ago.

“Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav 11 days ago; known in 13 days.

“Submit ACTA to the Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav 11 days ago; known in 15 days.

PredictionBook will display users’ Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav 11 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I will complete every tutorial and drill in Chessmaster: Grandmaster Edition before 2013. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo 11 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo 11 days ago; known on 2012-07-01.

“I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern 12 days ago; known in 24 days.

I will 1cc PCB Easy with 2 starting lives before 50 full runs (HGR) ( 85% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie 12 days ago; known on 2012-03-24.

I will obtain a CompTIA Network+ certification before 2013. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo 12 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.