Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 43% | 50% | 54% | 68% | 79% | 72% | |
| Sample Size | 199 | 338 | 291 | 317 | 355 | 123 | 1623 |
Recent Predictions
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I will sign up for cryonics by December 31st 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Larks 7 days ago; known in 5 months.
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Bank of England Base rate will be 1% or less on 31 December 2010 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by koenfucius 8 days ago; known in 5 months.
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Dow jones breaking through 12000 before end july ( 30% confidence )
Created by Conbruce 10 days ago; known in 1 day; judged wrong by koenfucius 8 days ago.
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I am going to make love soon ( 75% confidence )
Created by misterkeithb 12 days ago; known in about 1 month.
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I will make Wellesley ( 20% confidence )
Created by eringobraugh 15 days ago; known in 8 months.
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I’ll be done with my 9 holes by 10:50 AM ( 65% confidence )
Created by thetheepic1 17 days ago; known 17 days ago.
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Lebron to play for the New York Knicks in the 2010-2011 season. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jack 21 days ago; known 20 days ago; judged wrong by Jack 12 days ago.
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Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JFE 26 days ago; known in 5 months.
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Julia Gillard will win the next federal election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 month ago; known in 5 months.
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r.org traffic will start to increase again in july 2010 ( 72% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 month ago; known in 17 days.
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South Africa will beat France ( 55% confidence )
Created by vhistory about 1 month ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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Mexico and Uruguay will tie. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by vhistory about 1 month ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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I predict Stanley McChrystal will keep his job until at least July 22. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by vhistory about 1 month ago; known 7 days ago; judged right by gwern about 6 hours ago.
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Lakers will win NBA Finals ( 85% confidence )
Created by maskath@hotmail.com about 1 month ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by maskath@hotmail.com about 1 month ago.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Houshalter about 1 month ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by Houshalter about 1 month ago.
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Another company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Houshalter about 1 month ago; known in over 6 years.
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The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Matt Newport about 1 month ago; known in 4 months.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt Newport about 1 month ago; known in about 1 year.
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we will go to stockholm on thursday ( 100% confidence )
Created by asehelene about 1 month ago; known about 1 month ago.
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Another beloved celebrity will die before the year is over ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by maskath@hotmail.com about 1 month ago; known in 21 days.
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Sam Stosur will win the French Open! ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wednesday about 1 month ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by wednesday about 1 month ago.
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Australia will at least make the quarter finals of the 2010 World Cup ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Pie4Life about 1 month ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by gwern about 5 hours ago.
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Richmond will win the 2010 AFL wooden spoon ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Pie4Life about 1 month ago; known in about 1 month.
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Collingwood will finish top 4 ( 100% confidence )
Created by Pie4Life about 1 month ago; known in about 1 month.
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the chick from big is not the blond chick from weeds ( 70% confidence )
Created by Frank about 1 month ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 month ago.
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Will crack 100,000 visits in June ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank 2 months ago; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Frank 12 days ago.
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gggdgdg ( 100% confidence )
Created by giles125 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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PredictionBook will be successful in years to come ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago.
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reach 600 facebook fans by June 25th ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by Frank about 1 month ago.
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max brenner will make the best waflees today ( 100% confidence )
Created by f2 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by f2 2 months ago.
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I predict Collingwood will win the AFL Grand final in 2010. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dusty.brouwer 2 months ago; known in about 1 month.
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California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dakyne 2 months ago; known in 5 months.
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The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010. ( 75% confidence )
Created by dakyne 2 months ago; known in 5 months.
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Arena Pharmaceuticals’ anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010. ( 70% confidence )
Created by dakyne 2 months ago; known in 5 months.
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The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 90% confidence )
Created by dakyne 2 months ago; known in over 5 years.
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Chile will defeat Honduras ( 65% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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Bin Laden and USA are working together ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ravneetrox 2 months ago; known in over 19 years.
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India will win the T20 world cup ( 90% confidence )
Created by ravneetrox 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by poke 2 months ago.
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Maash will be married by the age of 28 with one child ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ravneetrox 2 months ago; known in over 7 years; judged wrong by poke 2 months ago.
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The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ravneetrox 2 months ago; known in over 9 years.
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Will Karishma find a boyfriend by the end of this year ( 60% confidence )
Created by ravneetrox 2 months ago; known in 4 months; judged wrong by poke 2 months ago.
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Manchester United will defeat Stoke and lift the EPL again ( 55% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by EPL_Predictor 2 months ago.
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Chelsea will drop points against Wigan and fail to win the EPL ( 60% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by EPL_Predictor 2 months ago.
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Will Jay ever make it to the candy mountain? ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by ravneetrox 2 months ago.
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The killers front man will debut a solo album ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by musicpredictor 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by mark.p 2 months ago.
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Gorillaz new album will go platinum ( 100% confidence )
Created by musicpredictor 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by deaz 2 months ago.
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Muse will come back down under to do another Australian tour before the end of the year ( 50% confidence )
Created by musicpredictor 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by mark.p 2 months ago.
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Slashs new album will flop! ( 75% confidence )
Created by musicpredictor 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by mark.p 2 months ago.
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Jimi Hendrix new album ‘Valley of Neptune’ will go platinum ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by musicpredictor 2 months ago; known in 11 months; judged right by musicpredictor 2 months ago.
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Justin Bieber’s voice will break in the coming year. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DianneD 2 months ago; known in 4 months; judged unknown by Houshalter about 1 month ago.
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Slovenia will defeat Algeria ( 60% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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England will defeat USA ( 70% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by Jack about 1 month ago.
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Greece will Defeat Korea ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by World_Cup_predictor 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by maskath@hotmail.com about 1 month ago.
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Argentina will defeat Nigeria ( 80% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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France will defeat Uruguay ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by World_Cup_predictor 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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South Africa will lose to Mexico in the opening match of the 2010 World Cup ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by World_Cup_predictor 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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Military style big bang this winter ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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Chelsea win will the cup ( 97% confidence )
Created by mktg2010 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by mktg2010 2 months ago.
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Pin it ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide 2 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by mark.p 2 months ago.
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In a few weeks, Dota Allstars 6.67c Ai will be released… ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mario1 2 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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Sunday 2nd may will have more than 2000 visitors ( 65% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by mario1 2 months ago.
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none of our boxes shipped home will go missing ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 28 days ago; judged right by Frank 3 days ago.
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We will buy the house we are looking at. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by Frank 3 months ago.
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Will crack 250,000 pageviews in may ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by Frank 2 months ago.
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I predict the car that James Bond will drive in the next movie will not be an aston martin. ( 80% confidence )
Created by dusty.brouwer 3 months ago; known in 11 months; judged right by poke 2 months ago.
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Shogun Rua will defeat Lyoto Machida at UFC 113 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predicted 3 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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Bright and tight will light up this winter. ( 80% confidence )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide 3 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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Channel 9’s pathetic tribute to murdered murderer Carl Williams will rate obscenely well. ( 80% confidence )
Created by chrisknows 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 3 hours ago.
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Blackburn will win the Eastern Footy League premiership ( 70% confidence )
Created by chrisknows 3 months ago; known in 2 months.
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Mohsin Malik better stay video than Jay Sean ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akavc15 3 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 3 hours ago.
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Travel to Europe will be delayed for a week due to Volcanic ash. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by predicted 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged right by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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Colin will not come over tonight ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged right by Frank 3 months ago.
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Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known in 11 months.
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Sunday traffic next week with be >2000 ( 73% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by Frank 3 months ago.
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Interest rates will be increased again in the next 4 months. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Marz 3 months ago; known in 14 days.
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Mav will ask Miss Bobbi (the actress) out on a date by the end of July ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mavmetropolis 3 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by mavmetropolis about 1 month ago.
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The concept car will cost over $100,000… ( 100% confidence )
Created by melissasajeh 3 months ago; known in 4 months.
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Winter warmth will be Thigh- High this season ( 80% confidence )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide 3 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by arivera 3 months ago.
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Ivy will win so you think you can dance 2010 ( 90% confidence )
Created by melly 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by mario1 2 months ago.
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reach 500 facebook fans by may 10st ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank 3 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged wrong by Frank 2 months ago.
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there will be a vulcanic explosion in Japan! ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by guru 3 months ago; known 3 months ago.
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FRan is a dinosaure ( 100% confidence )
Created by james 3 months ago; known 3 months ago.
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James has a massive penis ( 100% confidence )
Created by james 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by channers 3 months ago.
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James will become a millonaire one day ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by james 3 months ago; known 3 months ago.
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They will never cure cancer in our lifetimes. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by james 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 3 hours ago.
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Pamela Anderson willl win Dancing with the stars! ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by saralehman 3 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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YES!, THE ALBUM WILL BE A HIT! ( 99% confidence )
Created by mela23 4 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 3 hours ago.
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i will fool people tomorrow!! ( 96% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by urban 4 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by saralehman 3 months ago.
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the easter holidays will go super fast!! ( 100% confidence )
Created by bubble 4 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged right by bubble 4 months ago.
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Transparent fashion will be a hit this season ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide 4 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged right by plymoth 3 months ago.
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What are Widmore’s plans for the island? Please add comments ( 100% confidence )
Created by melissasajeh 4 months ago; known 27 days ago.
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Aaron will get back to the island ( 70% confidence )
Created by melissasajeh 4 months ago; known 27 days ago.
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Iron Man 2 will be the top 10 movie in 2010 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by melissasajeh 4 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by maskath@hotmail.com about 1 month ago.
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Eclipse will be as good as Twilight and New Moon and Bella will choose Edward! ( 90% confidence )
Created by melissasajeh 4 months ago; known 27 days ago; judged wrong by mario1 2 months ago.
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Carlton will make 2010 Afl Finals ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by maskath@hotmail.com 4 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged wrong by gwern about 3 hours ago.
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Dal Segno Studios will have 100 students by the time I leave for Europe in May ( 80% confidence )
Created by tiffany 4 months ago; known 24 days ago.
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Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham will make up the top 4 of the league ( 80% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor 4 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by EPL_Predictor 2 months ago.
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The furry mono-brow will not make it big any time soon. ( 98% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide 4 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by arivera 3 months ago.
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Hazel N. Catchin will see this message ( 75% confidence )
Created by reymartfc 4 months ago; known 4 months ago.
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Portsmouth will defeat Tottenham in the FA Cup semi-final ( 67% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor 4 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged right by EPL_Predictor 2 months ago.