Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 47% | 57% | 66% | 76% | 86% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 5203 | 7276 | 7073 | 7172 | 11292 | 4232 | 42248 |
Recent Predictions
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Dalwa al Islamyya or one of their affiliates rules >50% of Yemen ( 54% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 about 8 hours ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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I will be admitted to the Envision Conference at Princeton this year ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel about 21 hours ago; known in 2 days.
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Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple 1 day ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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I tracked our spending between 11th Feb 2017 and 4th March 2017 AND it is within 1000gbp ( 45% confidence )
Created by penten 2 days ago; known on 2017-03-05.
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I make more than 500gbp in non-work income by the end of the year ( 30% confidence )
Created by penten 2 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.
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S born after 1st November ( 60% confidence )
Created by penten 3 days ago; known on 2016-12-01.
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S born before 1st November ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten 3 days ago; known in 17 days.
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Alex knows what the Monty Hall problem is ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 3 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 3 days ago.
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I will be banned from diasporg ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 5 days ago; known on 2017-10-10; judged right by themusicgod1 3 days ago.
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Clinton wins at least one of the following: AK, GA, MO ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight 5 days ago; known on 2016-12-16.
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Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead 5 days ago; known on 2066-10-10.
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'President Mike Pence' ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 5 days ago; known on 2024-12-31.
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There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 5 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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This BOE reference interest rate will be 0.5% or below at the end of 2017 ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten 6 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten 6 days ago; known on 2019-10-10.
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Donald Trump will loose the presidential election and launch a news media channel in 2017 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by hoka 6 days ago; known on 2017-05-16.
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In tonight's debate, Trump will refer to either Bill Clinton's alleged rape of Juanita Broaddrick or Hillary Clinton's defense of Thomas Alfred Taylor (or both) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage 6 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by bobpage 6 days ago.
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>128 people actively communicating using RahisiBhasha ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2023-12-31.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 6 days ago; known on 2017-01-15.
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SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers ( 86% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 7 days ago; known on 2021-10-07.
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I will clean up summer bike before summer, ie it won't sit covered in mud like the winter bike was during the summer ( 28% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 7 days ago; known on 2017-10-01.
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I will read 45 or more books in 2016 ( 91% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 7 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.
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The orthotic makes my achilles peritendonitis better within 3 months. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 8 days ago; known on 2017-02-07.
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I do at least 50 hours of pomos over the next week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner 8 days ago; known 1 day ago.
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I spend less than $900 next month. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 8 days ago; known on 2016-11-17.
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I spend less than $1000 next month. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 8 days ago; known on 2016-11-17.
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My bike will still be at The Sheffield. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner 8 days ago; known about 9 hours ago.
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Jessica won't visit me before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 8 days ago; known on 2016-12-31.
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Haseeb will visit me some time between November 25th and December 5th. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner 8 days ago; known on 2016-12-05.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern 8 days ago; known on 2026-10-07.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known on 2036-10-07.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of grouping predictions on PredictionBook, and finding the average right to wrong ratio of them ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known on 2036-10-07.
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I will visit Japan before 2019 ( 38% confidence )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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I will visit Japan before 2018 ( 26% confidence )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2019-01-01 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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[LoL Worlds] NA team wins ( 18% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus 9 days ago; known in 17 days.
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[LoL Worlds] Chinese team wins ( 16% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus 9 days ago; known in 17 days.
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[LoL Worlds] Korean team wins ( 50% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus 9 days ago; known in 17 days.
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[LoL Worlds] Albus NOX Luna makes it out of groups ( 30% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus 9 days ago; known in 17 days.
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[LoL Worlds] At least one NA team makes it out of groups. ( 85% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus 9 days ago; known in 17 days.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2020 ( 19% confidence )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2019 ( 14% confidence )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2018 ( 4% confidence )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2017 ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.
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On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2017-06-01.
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Magic Leap's AR device is available for immediate shipment to the general public before 2017-06-01 ( 40% confidence )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2017-06-01.
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No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2017-06-01.
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No military coup / martial law / continuity of government takeover in the U.S before 2017-06-01 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2017-06-01.
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I will buy an iPhone for my own use before 2018 ( 80% confidence )
Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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Before 2030, Shunji Iwai will direct another movie that I will rate 95/100 or higher ( 3% confidence )
Created by bobpage 10 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will have > 2000 lines of Elixir code before 2017 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage 10 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.
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Contingent on no presidential candidate earning a majority of electoral votes (prediction is null if one does), the House of Representatives will elect Donald Trump ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dapple 11 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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My date with the pastry chef will be depressing ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS 11 days ago; known on 2017-05-10.
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I will come into work tomorrow ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge 11 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by splorridge 9 days ago.
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J will come into work tomorrow ( 92% confidence )
Created by splorridge 11 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by splorridge 9 days ago.
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A's BMI based on tomorrow's measurements will be greater than mine ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge 11 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by splorridge 9 days ago.
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I will weigh more tomorrow than I did today ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge 11 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by splorridge 11 days ago.
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A will weigh more than me tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by splorridge 11 days ago; known 10 days ago; judged right by splorridge 9 days ago.
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I will successfully arrive at my destination when travelling on 14/10/16 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge 11 days ago; known in 7 minutes.
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The seminar on Friday will go ahead. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge 11 days ago; known 8 days ago; judged right by splorridge 8 days ago.
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NASA InSight is launched successfully ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 12 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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China's Cap and Trade system still up and running ( 66% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 12 days ago; known on 2022-12-31.
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The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by bendini 12 days ago; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by two2thehead 5 days ago.
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3-4 “do everything” companies control 80%+ of hashrate of main cryptocurrency(Currently bitcoin) (ie companies that don't just provide hashes but large stack of services) ( 62% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 12 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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I'll be free to meet with Andrew between 5 and 9 tomorrow. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Capla 13 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by Capla 11 days ago.
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attawapiskat diamond mind starts to wind down production ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 13 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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I manage to submit a National Security Consultation submission ( 89% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 13 days ago; known on 2016-12-02.
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US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel 13 days ago; known on 2050-01-01.
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Hiveswap will be released by the end of January 2017 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TheCometKing 13 days ago; known on 2017-02-01.
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My next two attempts to set 5-rep PRs on the bench press will both be successful. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens 14 days ago; known in 14 days.
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On Monday I will successfully bench 187.5 pounds for 3 sets of 3 reps. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens 14 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by Michael Dickens 12 days ago.
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On Monday I will successfully squat 315 pounds for 5 reps. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens 14 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Michael Dickens 12 days ago.
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By 2019 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). ( 33% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens 14 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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By 2018 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens 14 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 15 days ago; known on 2016-12-30.
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LessWrong.ru Slack chat won't move from Slack to another platform until June 2017 ( 80% confidence )
Created by berekuk 15 days ago; known on 2017-06-01.
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We'll conduct the third applied rationality workshop in Kocherga in October or November 2016 ( 80% confidence )
Created by berekuk 15 days ago; known on 2016-12-01.
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I'll conduct a training on nonviolent communication for 6+ people in October 2016 ( 90% confidence )
Created by berekuk 15 days ago; known in 17 days.
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We won't hire any new admins for Kocherga club in 2016 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by berekuk 15 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.
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Rationalist club Kocherga won't shut down in 2016 ( 70% confidence )
Created by berekuk 15 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.
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Created by themusicgod1 16 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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US alert warhead loading reduced to 790 at any point on 2018 ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 16 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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Read 45 or more books this year ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten 16 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.
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Self driving vehicle on UK roads before end 2017 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten 16 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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Self driving vehicle on UK roads before end 2019 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten 16 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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Hillary next US president ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten 16 days ago; known in 26 days.
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No major attack attributable to Anonymous leading to mass death or @BiellaColeman still agrees “Anonymous are not terrorists” ( 74% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 21 days ago; known on 2018-12-01.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2016-10-01 and 2017-06-01 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel 22 days ago; known on 2017-06-02.
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Stan Stalnaker: 2018 Bots doing around $1T in transactions ( 88% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 23 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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bitcoin volatility goes very high, with wild % swings in 2017. at least 6 90% swings. ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 23 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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A new ministry will be created in the Russian government. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead 23 days ago; known on 2019-09-22.
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Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 23 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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5 2013-londons worth of urban development gets created in 2017 ( 63% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 24 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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At least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens 24 days ago; known on 2019-12-31.
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FISA Section 702 renewed ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 24 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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TBPL takes over NOIC small business development centre, writes them off as a partner. ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 24 days ago; known on 2021-09-21.
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Leah and the FSF will make amends, LibreBoot, including Leah will become GNU Libreboot again ( 11% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 24 days ago; known on 2021-09-21.
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Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 25 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
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If elected, Trump's presidency will lead to genocide in Syria by 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ifonlyalabama 27 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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Hillary will win the presidency ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com 28 days ago; known in 24 days.
