I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-05-02.

• btrettel estimated 4% on 2015-05-29
• btrettel said “In the stated time period, I’ll be living in Austin, TX. The data I have suggests the base rate is about 8% for Austin.” on 2015-05-29
• btrettel said “A large fraction of Austin’s cyclists ride dangerously (wrong way, no lights, poor visibility, running red lights, etc.), and I try not to, so I think I’m justified in believing I’m safer than they are.” on 2015-05-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 7% on 2015-05-29
• btrettel said “Correction to my earlier comment: “try not to” ==> “do not”. (Probably makes no difference, but if it does…)” on 2015-05-29
• ygert estimated 6% on 2015-05-30
• btrettel estimated 6% and said “Adjusting for likely overconfidence.” on 2015-05-30
• ioannes estimated 1% on 2016-04-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-15
• btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-05-02.
• btrettel said “Thankfully no bike crashes at all in the past year, though I’ve had some close calls.” on 2016-05-02