The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM

Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-07.

  • thechadisgreat estimated 100% on 2010-02-23
  • gwern estimated 50% on 2010-07-31
  • gwern said “he’s still not PM, so I’m going to go with the literal date and close this as correct even though ‘never’ has yet to passon 2011-05-10
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2011-05-10.
  • mad  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-07.
  • mad said “Just found this prediction. He’s PM, so I guess I should update this. on 2015-01-07

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