The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM

Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2011-04-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-05-10.

• thechadisgreat estimated 100% on 2010-02-23
• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-07-31
• gwern said “he’s still not PM, so I’m going to go with the literal date and close this as correct even though ‘never’ has yet to pass” on 2011-05-10
• gwern judged this prediction right on 2011-05-10.

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