Conditional on getting a vasectomy in 2016, I will regret the operation by the start of 2027

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-03; known on 2027-01-01

• btrettel estimated 15% on 2015-07-03
• btrettel changed the deadline from “on 2027-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Conditional on getting a vasectomy in 2017, I will regret the operation by the start of 2027” on 2015-07-03
• btrettel changed the deadline from “on 2027-01-02” on 2015-07-03
• btrettel said “Interested in whether I am overconfident.” on 2015-07-03
• btrettel said “https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21074020 “Between 7% and 10% of men who choose vasectomy as a contraceptive method regret their decision.”” on 2015-07-03
• btrettel said “https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10332448 “Vasectomy reversal occurred 12.5 times more often (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.6 to 20.7) in men who underwent vasectomy in their 20s than in men who were older.”” on 2015-07-03
• btrettel said “http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/3602704.html 15.3% of men aged 20 to 29 had vasectomies. Using as proxy for percent of men who get vasectomies that are younger than 20. I am 26.” on 2015-07-03
• btrettel said “Based on this, the base rate is approximately P(regret | young) = 0.1 / (0.153 + 0.847 / 12.5) = 0.453. My intuition seems to be overconfident.” on 2015-07-03
• btrettel estimated 35% and said “Below the base rate (actually, rate conditional on my age) because I don’t want children.” on 2015-07-03
• btrettel said “A number of assumptions have been made by necessity, but this was a useful analysis.” on 2015-07-03
• btrettel said “Typo: “Using as proxy for percent of men who get vasectomies that are younger than 20.” ==> “Using as proxy for percent of men who get vasectomies that are younger than 30.”” on 2015-07-07
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% on 2015-07-09

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