When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 65% accuracy for the 100% category

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-21.

• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2015-07-07
• JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/119451” on 2015-07-07
• RoryS estimated 65% on 2015-07-08
• EloiseRosen estimated 70% on 2015-07-09
• btrettel estimated 70% on 2015-07-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2015-11-01
• EloiseRosen estimated 50% and said “Updating. We’re currently at 12 100% predictions with an accuracy of 67%.” on 2015-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2015-11-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 21% on 2016-01-21
• PseudonymousUser said “I just checked: his accuracy is currently 79% with 68 predictions.” on 2016-01-21
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-21.