The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases
- Glenn estimated 70% on 2008-08-01
- Matt said “Hard to judge this one… what do you mean?” on 2008-09-09
- Glenn said “theorised back then that, on average, most people are no better than a coin at predicting things. regardless of how confident they are” on 2008-09-11
- Matt estimated 10% and said “Let’s define ‘approach horizontal’ as ‘area under the curve less than 200’.” on 2008-09-19
- Matt said “Does “as the usage base increases” mean we should push the due date out on this one?” on 2009-02-01
- Glenn said “Yes, agreed” on 2009-05-11
- Glenn changed the deadline from “on 2009-02-01” on 2009-05-11
- kess3r judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
- kess3r said “People with bad predictions will be discouraged from making bad predictions because this site will tell them their predictions are stupid. 70% wrong.” on 2009-10-14
- anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
- othercriteria estimated 30% on 2009-10-17
- Matt judged this prediction wrong on 2010-01-03.
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