Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.

• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2015-07-14
• JoshuaZ said “Context: discussion with Zardoz https://voat.co/v/politics/comments/258836/918318” on 2015-07-14
• EloiseRosen estimated 25% on 2015-07-14
• David estimated 5% on 2015-07-15
• JoshuaZ said “https://voat.co/v/politics/comments/321034/1264444 $20 bet with TexasComments. ” on 2015-07-23
• JoshuaZ said “https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/3f90yj/at_what_point_does_donald_trumps_presidential/ctoxn1u?context=3 bet with wishamufukkawould . They get $60 if it is Trump, I get $10 if it isn’t. ” on 2015-08-04
• regex estimated 80% and said “Call me incredibly optimistic, but everyone else seems like they’ll fold like paper.” on 2015-08-12
• regex   judged this prediction right on 2015-08-12.
• regex   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-12.
• Afforess estimated 20% and said “Still very early, but Trump is doing very well, and Bush and Walker have gone down in the polls significantly.” on 2015-08-17
• JoshuaZ said “https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/3i3g00/trump_widens_lead_over_us_republican_presidential/cudaduz?context=3 bet with FuckMyAssHardAgain – they get $15 if he is the nominee and pay $25 if he isn’t. ” on 2015-08-24
• Afforess estimated 25% and said “Adjusting upwards a bit, Trump continues to do very well.” on 2015-08-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Also adjusting upwards. ” on 2015-08-27
• sflicht estimated 10% on 2015-08-27
• btrettel estimated 24% on 2015-08-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 13% on 2015-09-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-09-06
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6 shows Trump may have some chance in the general election, which may make the establishment less inclined to stomp on him, especially with him signing pledge.” on 2015-09-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% and said “Seems to be getting more likely. In many ways, he reminds me of Obama when he was this far out. ‘Hope and Change’ == ‘Make America Great Again’” on 2015-09-07
• Afforess estimated 33% and said “Early signs of Jeb Bush supporters defecting to Rubio, Walker is out, and continued Republican churn make Trump’s strong polls look even more impressive. 1 in 3 odds he is the nominee. ” on 2015-09-29
• Medea estimated 20% on 2015-10-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% and said “Updating on Trump’s apparent polling still staying high. ” on 2015-10-25
• Afforess estimated 40% and said “Jeb Bush is nearly sunk. Christie is sunk. Rubio is still weak. Carson is the only strong contender on the field, but it is not clear if he is the flavor of the month or has any staying power. Will re-evaluate in one month. Trump still looks good.” on 2015-10-26
• ChristianKl estimated 10% on 2015-11-01
• JoshuaZ said “Note bet for RedditGold https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/3pxz04/why_havent_the_republicans_run_any_better_ie_more/cwdz4ld with TRUMPTRUMPTRUMPTRUMP (although I assign a high probability they will not pay up). ” on 2015-11-01
• qznc estimated 40% on 2015-11-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 26% on 2015-11-11
• hedges estimated 40% on 2015-11-13
• Andrew MacFie estimated 30% on 2015-11-22
• Andrew MacFie said “Some negatives: age, protectionism” on 2015-11-22
• hawk estimated 75% on 2015-11-30
• quanticle estimated 20% and said “http://www.vox.com/2015/11/25/9800174/why-one-political-scientist-thinks-donald-trump-might-actually-win” on 2015-12-03
• quanticle estimated 10% and said “Discussed this with Logos01. Logos01 reminded me that there are quite a few delegates at the conventions who aren’t chosen by any sort of popular vote, and that those delegates are more than sufficient to push someone else over the top.” on 2015-12-03
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% and said “At this point in — 2004: Dean/Clark tied. 2008 (D): H. Clinton +19.2®: Giuliani +14.3 2012: Gingrich +6.2https://twitter.com/pastfrontrunner/status/671735566535229440” on 2015-12-04
• Raahul_Kumar said “In short I’m saying the majority of voters don’t make up their minds till later, and early polls are meaningless. Bet on JEB!” on 2015-12-04
• yashkaf estimated 20% and said “Adjusting downward from the 27% on Predictit: sensible or anchoring bias?” on 2015-12-06
• Afforess estimated 50% and said “Jeb bush is dead. Carson is looking weak. No other candidates even compare to Trump in the polls at this point. Rubio has not gained any momentum in the last month. A Trump ticket looks like an even bet.” on 2015-12-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 27% on 2015-12-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2015-12-16
• ChristianKl estimated 35% on 2015-12-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 29% and said “Updating on continued high poll numbers. ” on 2015-12-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 31% on 2015-12-30
• ivendrov estimated 40% on 2016-01-07
• Afforess said “Maintaining 50% odds, no change in polling in last 30 days. Awaiting Iowa results.” on 2016-01-07
• pkfalu92 estimated 10% on 2016-01-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 34% and said “Based on lack of other candidates attacking Trump, and lack of attack adds in early primary states. ” on 2016-01-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 42% and said “http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html Ahead in Florida which has a winner take all primary. ” on 2016-01-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 46% and said “http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/01/22/rnc-disinvites-national-review-from-gop-debate/208112” on 2016-01-22
• PseudonymousUser estimated 75% on 2016-01-23
• davidmanheim estimated 40% on 2016-01-28
• PseudonymousUser said “http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/13/full-simulation-of-gop-nomination-rules/” on 2016-02-01
• sflicht estimated 35% on 2016-02-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% and said “Unfortunately.” on 2016-02-22
• HonoreDB estimated 55% on 2016-02-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 52% on 2016-02-25
• Medea estimated 45% on 2016-02-26
• Afforess estimated 90% and said “At this point, Trump is the nominee.” on 2016-02-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 56% on 2016-02-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 36% on 2016-02-29
• davidmanheim estimated 60% and said “It’s crazy, but Cruz and Rubio aren’t managing to dent him. ” on 2016-02-29
• brslvrsl estimated 60% on 2016-02-29
• sflicht estimated 75% on 2016-03-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 76% on 2016-03-02
• waveman estimated 35% and said “He has many enemies” on 2016-03-04
• waveman estimated 55% and said “This is for the republican nominee rather than president so a higher estimate.” on 2016-03-04
• bendini estimated 80% and said “even when he loses the debate, the polls still say he won” on 2016-03-04
• equivrel estimated 70% on 2016-03-04
• Lissy estimated 60% on 2016-03-09
• Andrew MacFie estimated 50% on 2016-03-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 78% on 2016-03-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 81% and said “Update based on reported negotiations between Cruz and Trump. If that happens this is very likely over. ” on 2016-03-16
• waveman estimated 60% and said “A bit more confident now given his recent results. But it is by no means a certainty” on 2016-03-17
• CarlShulman estimated 73% on 2016-03-17
• artir estimated 93% on 2016-03-18
• ArturoGoosnargh estimated 83% and said “~100% – (33% of depending on superdelegates * 50% of superdelegates voting against him)” on 2016-03-19
• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2016-03-19
• themusicgod1 estimated 39% and said “Minimum after bumping up after reading The Authoritarians.” on 2016-03-22
• Afforess estimated 98% and said “Trump will be an interesting case study for historians, I imagine.” on 2016-03-22
• Andrew MacFie estimated 60% on 2016-03-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 86% and said “Updating based on apparent disorganization+lack of will among the Republicans trying to stop Trump, along with Kasich’s lack of tactical campaigning. ” on 2016-03-23
• hedges estimated 83% on 2016-03-25
• waveman estimated 35% and said “He seems to be running into trouble on a number of fronts.” on 2016-04-02
• NathanMcKnight estimated 55% on 2016-04-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 84% and said “Slight adjustment down based on Wisconsin polling. ” on 2016-04-04
• pkfalu92 estimated 17% on 2016-04-10
• waveman estimated 55% and said “I think my previous revision was an over-reaction” on 2016-04-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 91% and said “Based on unexpected success with unbound delegateshttp://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-secures-commanding-lead-unbound-delegates-pennsylvania/story?id=38695683” on 2016-04-27
• NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2016-04-29
• sflicht estimated 90% on 2016-04-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 93% and said “Based on probable win in Indiana (if wins there will update to 95). ” on 2016-04-30
• Peteris estimated 90% on 2016-05-02
• Sedols estimated 95% and said “Only way Trump does not get nominated if GOP goes for an open convention. But given the popular vote he has that could mean the end of the Republican party. So the safest bet for republicans is to stick with Trump. ” on 2016-05-02
• waveman estimated 70% on 2016-05-02
• waveman said “He seems to be getting close to the needed delegate count.” on 2016-05-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 96% on 2016-05-04
• Andrew MacFie estimated 95% on 2016-05-04
• waveman estimated 97% on 2016-05-04
• NathanMcKnight estimated 85% on 2016-05-19
• Afforess said “Trump is the nominee: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36392084” on 2016-05-26
• Afforess   judged this prediction right on 2016-05-26.
• themusicgod1 said “isn’t it the case that “enough delegates” is different from “nominated”?” on 2016-05-26
• themusicgod1 said “this comment is mostly a test” on 2016-05-26
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-05-26.
• JoshuaZ said “Let’s wait until he’s formally nominated before calling it. ” on 2016-05-26
• bendini   judged this prediction right on 2016-06-24.
• PseudonymousUser said ““Trump is not the official nominee until the Republican National Convention says so.” http://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/10790/is-donald-trump-officially-the-republican-nominee” on 2016-07-13
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-07-13.
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 87% on 2016-07-13
• two2thehead estimated 99% and said ““Never Trump” won’t win” on 2016-07-13
• elephantower estimated 99% and said “ok, if we want to play this game…” on 2016-07-16
• waveman   judged this prediction right on 2016-07-16.
• waveman said “Technically it’s not official but that is irrelevant.” on 2016-07-16
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-07-16.
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2016-07-15” on 2016-07-16
• elephantower said “now it’s showing up as incorrect for everybody — just leave it marked correct, and if Trump isn’t nominated, you can change it then” on 2016-07-16
• elephantower   judged this prediction right on 2016-07-16.