No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2015-07-19
• btrettel estimated 90% on 2015-07-19
• Madplatypus estimated 70% on 2015-07-20
• jesselevine estimated 90% on 2015-07-21
• Endfall estimated 30% and said “Allowing for improvement of cryonic technology itself. If said remains static, then 60%.” on 2015-07-22
• David estimated 99% on 2015-07-25
• EloiseRosen estimated 80% on 2015-07-27
• supinf estimated 93% on 2015-07-31
• daccount10 estimated 90% on 2015-08-02
• espore estimated 99% and said “Doesn’t seem likely and no drive to improve the technology” on 2015-08-02
• espore  judged this prediction right on 2015-08-02.
• JoshuaZ  judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-03.
• btrettel estimated 95% and said “What’s the definition of revival for the purposes of this prediction? Would being in a vegetative state count?” on 2015-08-04
• btrettel said “Would becoming an “upload” count? I assume yes to both of the previous questions.” on 2015-08-04
• JoshuaZ said “I was intending for this to be substantially more functioning than a vegetative state. ” on 2015-08-04
• btrettel estimated 98% and said “Thought some more about this. I think it’s unlikely there will be many revival attempts by this year, and success is still unlikely.” on 2015-08-04
• btrettel said “Some guy at CI: “I would not be surprised if the first cryonics revival was attempted by 2040-2050” http://www.cryonics.org/about-us/faqs” on 2015-08-04
• btrettel estimated 99% and said “Much closer to 100% than 99%. The more I read about cryonics the less I believe both that current technology is adequate and that anyone will consider revival before 2040.” on 2015-08-05
• JoshuaZ said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/127640 for 2100” on 2015-08-06
• Vasudha Pande estimated 99% on 2015-08-09
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 95% and said “No mammal has been revived from cryogenic freezing, succeed with a mouse first, then a pig.” on 2016-02-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-07-09

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