No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
- JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2015-07-19
- btrettel estimated 90% on 2015-07-19
- Madplatypus estimated 70% on 2015-07-20
- jesselevine estimated 90% on 2015-07-21
- Endfall estimated 30% and said “Allowing for improvement of cryonic technology itself. If said remains static, then 60%.” on 2015-07-22
- David estimated 99% on 2015-07-25
- EloiseRosen estimated 80% on 2015-07-27
- supinf estimated 93% on 2015-07-31
- daccount10 estimated 90% on 2015-08-02
- espore estimated 99% and said “Doesn’t seem likely and no drive to improve the technology” on 2015-08-02
- espore judged this prediction right on 2015-08-02.
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-03.
- btrettel estimated 95% and said “What’s the definition of revival for the purposes of this prediction? Would being in a vegetative state count?” on 2015-08-04
- btrettel said “Would becoming an “upload” count? I assume yes to both of the previous questions.” on 2015-08-04
- JoshuaZ said “I was intending for this to be substantially more functioning than a vegetative state. ” on 2015-08-04
- btrettel estimated 98% and said “Thought some more about this. I think it’s unlikely there will be many revival attempts by this year, and success is still unlikely.” on 2015-08-04
- btrettel said “Some guy at CI: “I would not be surprised if the first cryonics revival was attempted by 2040-2050” http://www.cryonics.org/about-us/faqs” on 2015-08-04
- btrettel estimated 99% and said “Much closer to 100% than 99%. The more I read about cryonics the less I believe both that current technology is adequate and that anyone will consider revival before 2040.” on 2015-08-05
- JoshuaZ said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/127640 for 2100” on 2015-08-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2015-08-09
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 95% and said “No mammal has been revived from cryogenic freezing, succeed with a mouse first, then a pig.” on 2016-02-21
- themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-07-09
- davatk estimated 97% on 2018-04-26
- kiimberlie estimated 90% on 2018-05-16
- pranomostro estimated 95% on 2018-11-25
- Baeboo estimated 95% on 2018-12-12
- wizzwizz4 estimated 70% on 2020-06-13
- wizzwizz4 estimated 99% and said “Never mind – this is “happens”, not “possible”. Nobody’s going to be suspended For Science, so we’ll have to be able to reverse some cause of legal death too; a vegetative state doesn’t count.” on 2020-06-13
- amrav estimated 90% on 2020-06-13
- JoshuaZ estimated 91% on 2020-06-19