Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion)

Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

  • tjross estimated 63% on 2010-03-23
  • kassey estimated 50% on 2010-03-23
  • maskath@hotmail.com estimated 70% on 2010-06-04
  • Houshalter estimated 80% on 2010-06-13
  • Pavitra estimated 90% on 2010-08-03
  • gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-03
  • Jennifer said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/452on 2010-09-29
  • anonym estimated 80% on 2010-11-27
  • gimpf estimated 70% on 2010-12-13
  • Larks estimated 60% on 2011-01-01
  • Nic_Smith estimated 60% and said “Following Intrade on this one, which tends to fluctuate around 60% (Currently at 63%)on 2011-05-23
  • Nic_Smith estimated 56% and said “Still following Intrade — Obama’s down slightly but noticeably for roughly the last month and is at 55% todayon 2011-08-04
  • bobpage estimated 60% on 2011-08-21
  • Nic_Smith estimated 50% on 2011-10-22
  • Nic_Smith estimated 60% on 2012-02-11
  • jbeshir estimated 58% on 2012-09-10
  • Nic_Smith estimated 80% on 2012-09-28
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 78% and said “Intrade: 78.3on 2012-09-29
  • HonoreDB  judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.

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