there will be a vulcanic explosion in Japan!

Created by guru on 2010-04-05; known on 2010-04-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-09.

• guru estimated 37% on 2010-04-05
• gwern estimated 60% and said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanoes_in_Japan eruptions nearly every year.” on 2010-07-29
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-08-09.
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-08-09.