Interest rates will be increased again in the next 4 months.

Created by Marz 4 months ago; known 26 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 26 days ago.

• Marz estimated 90% 4 months ago
• chrisknows estimated 95% 4 months ago
• chrisknows estimated 95% 4 months ago
• chrisknows estimated 95% 4 months ago
• gwern estimated 80% against about 1 month ago
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions#Historical_actions nothing since 2008” 26 days ago
• gwern said “http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FEDFUNDS.txt last increase from 0.16 to 0.20 was 1 4 2010, or 4 months ago. only stasis or decrease since April” 26 days ago
• gwern said “Since neither metric gives an increase since April, I am marking this one wrong. If something else was meant, Marz, specify…” 26 days ago
• gwern judged this prediction wrong 26 days ago.

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