The Rigs Will Burn! Rigs have fallen by -1029 in just one year according to Baker Hughes as of August 7.There are only 884 rigs left alive. 1 more year of this, and all the rigs will have burned down. Shout Allahu Akbar as Iran delivers Coup de grâce.
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-09-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-28.
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 95% on 2015-08-19
- Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-27” and changed their prediction from “The Rigs Will Burn! Rigs have fallen by -1029 in just one year according to Baker Hughes as of August 7.There are only 884 rigs left alive. 1 more year of this, and all the rigs will have burned down. Shout Allahu Akbar as the return of Iran delivers t” on 2015-08-19
- sflicht estimated 0% on 2015-08-25
- sflicht said “I’m interpreting this as predicting whether the Baker Hughes count will fall to zero. That seems very unlikely.” on 2015-08-25
- Raahul_Kumar said “Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slumphttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-26/oil-industry-needs-to-find-half-a-trillion-dollars-to-survive” on 2015-08-29
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Also following sflicht’s interpreation. ” on 2015-08-29
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Raahul, if a different interpretation was intended please say so explicitly. ” on 2015-08-29
- Raahul_Kumar said “Goldman Sachs says oil could fall to $20 a barrel“We continue to view US shale as the likely near-term source of supply adjustment.”https://tinyurl.com/oyubby3” on 2015-09-13
- Raahul_Kumar said “11 September 2015 U.S. 848Canada 185 http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverviewThe death of North American Shale industry, not just the USA.” on 2015-09-13
- Raahul_Kumar said “https://tinyurl.com/omq4zbx” on 2015-09-24
- Raahul_Kumar said “EIA said that U.S. production will fall by 1 million barrels per day over the next year .”IEA made the point more strongly.“..the latest price rout could stop US growth in its tracks.”” on 2015-09-24
- Raahul_Kumar said “Baker Hughes has only 808 rigs left alive. On 11 Sep there were 848 rigs.At this rate of attrition the prediction will come true before September.https://tinyurl.com/pulkp29” on 2015-10-03
- Raahul_Kumar said “US shale output set to fall by 600,000 bpd in January from March peak: EIAhttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/50083989.cms” on 2015-12-09
- Raahul_Kumar said “Baker Hughes has on 8 January: USA 664 Canada 166. Time to advance the prediction date, I no longer think US oil rigs will last the year.” on 2016-01-11
- Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-27” on 2016-01-11
- two2thehead estimated 0% and said “I’m duplicating my estimate from here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177515 ” on 2016-09-02
- themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-09-28
- two2thehead said “Copying what themusicgod1 said in the above linked prediction. “Rig count: US 511 Canada 138 Intl 937. These rigs take time to shut down”” on 2016-09-28
- two2thehead judged this prediction wrong on 2016-09-28.
- two2thehead said “BUG REPORT: When I am logged in the ‘happenstance’ it shows that this prediction is marked correct. https://imgur.com/a/Wg7p4” on 2016-09-28
- PseudonymousUser said “I don’t think that’s a bug. PredictionBook does that when an estimate was between 0-50% for a Wrong outcome.” on 2016-09-28
- two2thehead said “Ah. That makes sense.” on 2016-09-28