Arena Pharmaceuticals' anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010.

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• dakyne estimated 70% on 2010-05-11
• gwern estimated 60% and said “The FDA is very slow.” on 2010-07-30
• dakyne estimated 10% and said “The FDA being slow isn’t the only problem—it is corrupt. That’s why I like gold and silver—they are proxies for corruption.” on 2010-09-19
• gwern estimated 10% and said “Since the advisory prediction was closed as wrong, that means I ought to significantly reduce my prediction that it will be approved.” on 2010-09-19
• dakyne estimated 1% and said “If 0% was mathematically possible, I would choose that. Lorcaserin may get approved by Oct. 2011 if they successfully respond to the CRL, but not by Dec. 2010” on 2010-12-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.