The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months.

Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2010-12-16; judged right by dakyne on 2010-09-27.

  • Matt Newport estimated 80% on 2010-06-11
  • gwern estimated 55% on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/916on 2010-08-23
  • gwern said “echo: http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dxq?c=1on 2010-08-23
  • dakyne estimated 60% and said “The probability of gold reaching $1300 increases if the window is by the end of the year. By November, 60% appears fair. You should indicate an exact date.on 2010-08-23
  • gwern said “What do you mean? There is an exact date, PB doesn’t allow inexact dates.on 2010-08-25
  • dakyne said “@gwern, Matt said in “6 months”. When is the exact date? All is says today is “known in 2 months”.on 2010-09-19
  • dakyne said “also, he posits “at some point in the next 6 months”. Based on that wording, I would give it 90% probability.on 2010-09-19
  • gwern said “The exact date is ‘2010-12-16 20:00:00’. The software doesn’t display the exact date for UI reasons, but it’s there.on 2010-09-19
  • dakyne  judged this prediction right on 2010-09-27.
  • dakyne said “I would judge this prediction as “Right” since gold crossed $1300 last week, and his wording is “at some point in the next 6 months.”on 2010-09-27
  • gwern said “No objection here.on 2010-09-27

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