“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/4on 2010-07-29
  • Grognor estimated 45% and said “not as in always, right? routinely as in… sometimes, and it doesn’t make the news every single time? that’s how I’m taking iton 2011-12-06
  • Malgidus estimated 70% and said “Safer, more cost effective.on 2013-03-27
  • RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2013-03-28
  • simplicio estimated 20% and said “Computers may do most or all of the work but removing the human pilot is a relatively pointless step considering their relative cheapness (compared to e.g., fuel) and the “comfort factor” they give to passengers.on 2013-03-28
  • dhoe estimated 50% and said “I’ve spoken to somebody in aerospace who claimed that “everybody in the industry knows” it would be safer, but they still won’t do it due to human psychology.on 2013-03-29
  • ChristianKl estimated 60% on 2013-03-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-05-28
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-06

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