“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01

  • gwern estimated 70% on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/12on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “I’m pretty confident in this one. Too many participants, too few experimental results, and Nobels have long had a leadtime measured in decades.on 2010-07-29
  • Grognor estimated 85% on 2011-12-06
  • themusicgod1 estimated 64% on 2016-10-06

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