Alcor's membership will be 11% or more greater in 2016 than 2015

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.

• btrettel estimated 20% on 2015-09-15
• btrettel said “Inspiration: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/mr9/open_thread_sep_14_sep_20_2015/cqwe” on 2015-09-15
• btrettel said “Data: http://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html” on 2015-09-15
• btrettel said “The data is approximately linear starting around 1990. Linear extrapolation suggests only 3% growth from 2015 to 2016.” on 2015-09-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-09-15
• EloiseRosen estimated 10% on 2015-09-16
• btrettel said “1111 members as of Nov. 30, 2016. That’s up from 1054 in 2015 (date unspecified). While it is possible in the last month membership spiked, this is roughly half the predicted growth, so I judge this false.” on 2017-01-01
• btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.