“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/15” on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “‘The median estimate of when there will be 50% chance of human level machine intelligence was 2050.’ ” on 2011-04-22
• gwern said “http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2011/04/when_will_we_get_our_robot_overlords.html” on 2011-04-22
• gwern said “‘a survey of contributors to a converging technologies book by Bainbridge gave a median estimate of 2085’” on 2011-04-22
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/5dg/sandberg_a_and_bostrom_n_2011_machine/3zyf” on 2011-04-22
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% and said “Assuming: “and we will accept it as such”” on 2016-10-06
• pranomostro estimated 60% and said “We’d need clear criteria for consciousness here.” on 2019-01-14