“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2010-07-30
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/86on 2010-07-30
  • gwern said “I’m not terribly confident that the USA or Western Europe will even have compulsory schooling in 2150.on 2010-07-30
  • gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1458on 2010-07-30
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-10
  • bobpage estimated 0% on 2011-11-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “The real question is if old people will be buying robot insurance from Old Glory. on 2011-11-17
  • faws estimated 3% and said “Not that they would help, but I could see politicians who feel pressured to be seen doing something against a perceived looming unfriendly AI threat mandating something like that. on 2011-11-18
  • Anubhav said “^ Almost definitely falling prey to narrative plausibility bias. on 2011-11-18
  • gwern estimated 5% and said “parsing it a little more and thinking about the conjunctions involvedon 2011-11-18
  • Tiresias estimated 0% on 2011-12-20
  • WilliamKiely estimated 0% on 2016-06-29
  • themusicgod1 estimated 43% and said “what’s a school?on 2016-10-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2016-10-07

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