Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016.

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-25.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2015-09-23
• PseudonymousUser said “Using data from the World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS/countries/1W-CN?display=graph” on 2015-09-23
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Nonperforming loans of will exceed 2% of total loans in China by the end of 2016.” on 2015-09-23
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of total loans in China by the end of 2016.” on 2015-09-23
• PseudonymousUser changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-02” and changed their prediction from “Nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016.” on 2015-09-23
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% and said “WB says that NPA is 1.1% in 2014, that is a lot of bad loans to happen in 2 years. From 2012-14, NPA’s only increased by 0.1” on 2015-09-24
• PseudonymousUser said “^Yes, China’s looks pretty steady. The US and Japan’s NPAs were 2.0 and 1.9 last year. I think China’s is abnormally low by comparison. ” on 2015-09-26
• PseudonymousUser said “For further comparison, China’s 1.1% NPA is about halfway between Japan’s 1.9% and South Korea’s 0.6%. ” on 2015-09-26
• PseudonymousUser said “This number seems a strikingly low to me, and I suspect the low volatility in China’s NPA during past few years is due to rising real estate prices, rather than low credit risk exposure.” on 2015-09-26
• PseudonymousUser said “See (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS/countries/1W-CN-BR-KR-US-JP-HK?display=graph)” on 2015-09-26
• PseudonymousUser said “Admittedly, China does not have credit risk exposure on the home loan side of things (30% down payments!) but…” on 2015-09-26
• PseudonymousUser said “China seems to be channelling borrowing into excess capacity (including commercial real estate). ” on 2015-09-26
• PseudonymousUser said “This has both crushed ROAs and created huge exposure to the credit risk of property developers (and other owners of excess capacity). ” on 2015-09-26
• PseudonymousUser said “And if developers cannot service their debts, this puts China at risk of a banking crisis.” on 2015-09-26
• PseudonymousUser said “A nice paper on this stuff: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1584.pdf” on 2015-09-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-09-26
• Raahul_Kumar said “There is presently a large urbanization drive. https://tinyurl.com/o447wyy” on 2015-09-26
• Raahul_Kumar said “There is plenty of demand for all kinds of real estate.” on 2015-09-26
• PseudonymousUser said “We’ll see.” on 2015-09-27
• Josh Holland estimated 45% on 2015-10-05
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/china-economy-loans-idUSB9N0Z402L20150810” on 2015-11-01
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/risky-math-how-analysts-calculate-china-s-true-bad-loan-burden” on 2015-11-01
• PseudonymousUser said “(I will still be using World Bank data to determine the outcome.)” on 2015-11-01
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/china-banks-results-idUSL3N12U2XM20151030” on 2015-11-01
• PseudonymousUser said “NPL ratio was 1.82% at the end of June. ” on 2015-11-01
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/06/reuters-america-update-1-chinas-top-bank-regulator-says-bad-loans-surge-profit-growth-slows-in-cooling-economy.html” on 2015-11-01
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/26/china-banks-turn-to-investors-for-funds-as-bad-loans-mount.html” on 2015-11-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 83% on 2015-11-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 52% on 2015-11-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 85% and said “Wooow… Bank of China (the private bank, not PBOC) is going to issue Asset-Backed Securities backed by nonperforming assets… http://www.reuters.com/article/china-banks-debt-idUSL3N13Z1DR20151210” on 2015-12-17
• PseudonymousUser said “http://seekingalpha.com/article/3792676-bank-of-america-says-china-has-passed-the-point-of-no-return” on 2016-01-10
• PseudonymousUser said “http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2015/12/10/china-seeks-a-way-to-fill-its-empty-homes/?mod=blog_flyover” on 2016-01-20
• PseudonymousUser said “The transition to the service sector is a huge issue. Rural workers who aren’t in the service sector will have a difficult time finding jobs in urban areas.” on 2016-01-20
• PseudonymousUser said “Due to the skill-mismatch issue, China’s the urbanization drive will fail. ” on 2016-01-20
• PseudonymousUser said “Property developers won’t get the renters they need. They will then default on their debt. ” on 2016-01-20
• PseudonymousUser said “This will necessitate a bailout of the state-owned banks that issued the loans to the property developers.” on 2016-01-20
• PseudonymousUser said “This also explains why China is rushing to securitize their real estate debt and sell it to foreign investors. ” on 2016-01-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 88% on 2016-01-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 91% and said “Boom! A rating agency agrees with me. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSFit947100” on 2016-02-15
• PseudonymousUser said “Fitch thinks the NPL ratio for HK Banks will be 1.5%-2.0% by end of 2016. I’m assuming mainland China will have it worse.” on 2016-02-15
• PseudonymousUser said “Also meant to post this a while ago: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Chinese-banks-face-higher-risks-and-loan-delinquencies—PR_342836” on 2016-02-15
• PseudonymousUser said “Also, China’s January imports fell 18.2% year-over-year. That’s a lot. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/14/china-releases-trade-data-for-january-yuan-denominated-and-us-dollar-imports-and-exports.html” on 2016-02-15
• PseudonymousUser said “For comparison, in the Great Recession, US monthly imports suffered a maximum drawdown of about 34%: www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports” on 2016-02-15
• PseudonymousUser said “And yes, China’s markets are down again today. http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/14/china-markets-set-to-open-after-long-break/” on 2016-02-15
• Raahul_Kumar said “Tape, 2008, the worst recent year in history had only 2.4% bad loans. Unlikely.” on 2016-02-15
• Raahul_Kumar said “China Banking Regulatory Commission said 1.67% of loans by 2015 were non-performing, up from 1.25% a year earlier.” on 2016-02-25
• PseudonymousUser said “for 2016, it was 1.744 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS?locations=CN” on 2019-02-25
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-02-25.