“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/92” on 2010-07-30
• Grognor estimated 8% on 2011-12-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-04-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-06
• Athrithalix estimated 1% on 2018-02-22
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-14
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-31.