“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2010-07-31
  • gwern said “As much as I’d like to put 0 on this, a good world war could do this.on 2010-07-31
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
  • Sniffnoy estimated 1% on 2011-10-10
  • Malgidus estimated 8% and said “Unless the Internet “wakes up”on 2013-03-27
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2013-03-28
  • RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2013-03-28
  • simplicio estimated 5% on 2013-03-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Noting that this still rounds to 5% but with probability moved downward slightly. on 2016-02-21
  • kuudes said “How will this be judged? Technically UN already can wield legal authority, it just never has that much unanimity (basicly UNSC + General Assembly in supermajority can do legally about anything). I suppose the prediction is after some public measure?on 2016-02-21
  • themusicgod1 estimated 34% and said “Judging this is going to be a bitch, but it’s coming from a variety of angles, and 2030 is about the right time frame. But it will likely lead to world war and I don’t think that’s likely. Hrm.on 2016-05-13
  • themusicgod1 estimated 39% on 2016-05-13

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