“There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

  • gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-01
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/266on 2010-08-01
  • gwern said “I follow Scott Aaronson’s skepticism about dwaveon 2010-08-01
  • Larks estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.

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