“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01

  • gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-01
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/283on 2010-08-01
  • army1987 said “Define “our civilization”. I guess my grandchildren would be alive by then, but life’s gonna be quite differenton 2011-10-03
  • Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-10-10
  • Anubhav estimated 80% and said “Reevaluated probability of apocalypse.on 2011-10-10
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-10-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2011-10-11
  • Isaac estimated 85% on 2011-10-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 92% and said “More confident. on 2011-10-17

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