“Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-01
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/287” on 2010-08-01
• gimpf said “Two generations, yes, but why did they set a generation to last only 4 years at longbets? That’s another child, not a population turnover…” on 2010-12-13
• Raahul_Kumar said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran#Current_situation” on 2015-12-23
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-12-23.
• Raahul_Kumar said “I’ve talked to real life Iranian students, and the situation is terrible.” on 2015-12-23
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-12-23.
• PlacidPlatypus said “This is woefully underspecified, but even so it’s clearly far too soon to mark it one way or another.” on 2015-12-23
• Raahul_Kumar said “What changes can you imagine happening in Iran in 7 days?” on 2015-12-24
• Raahul_Kumar said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Iran#Freedom_of_the_press” on 2015-12-24
• Raahul_Kumar said “Global Views of Iran Overwhelmingly Negativehttp://www.pewglobal.org/2013/06/11/global-views-of-iran-overwhelmingly-negative/#no-respect-for-personal-freedoms” on 2015-12-24
• Raahul_Kumar said “The authorities restricted freedoms of expression, association and assembly, arresting, detaining and prosecuting in unfair trials minority and women’s rights activists, journalists, human rights defenders and others who voiced dissent. ” on 2015-12-24
• Raahul_Kumar said “https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/middle-east-and-north-africa/iran/” on 2015-12-24
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.