China will land a man on Mars by 2050.

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01

  • gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-02
  • gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-02
  • Larks estimated 40% on 2010-09-29
  • Ken estimated 55% on 2011-09-12
  • bobpage estimated 5% and said “Wikipedia says the plan is “[…] a crewed phase in 2040-2060” but this prediction is dependent on no early singularity, China existing in a similar form, people still being interested in landing people on planetson 2011-09-13
  • gimpf estimated 50% on 2011-09-13
  • JoshuaZ said “Is this meant to include China landing people as part of an international mission that they take part in? on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “That is, is this prediction fulfilled only if they go it alone? on 2011-11-17
  • seifip estimated 15% on 2013-04-14
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 45% on 2015-12-07
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 45% on 2016-01-17
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07

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