“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-02
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/351on 2010-08-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 48% on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 15% on 2011-11-18
  • kilobug estimated 25% on 2011-11-18
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 12% and said “Gwern’s estimate seems hard to defend in light of his estimate here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1892on 2012-10-02
  • Jayson Virissimo said “You think that’s a little off? My probability estimates are NOT EVEN CLOSE to being coherent.on 2012-10-02
  • RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2012-10-02
  • gwern said “Benthamite: good point, I’ll update the other.on 2012-10-02
  • Medea estimated 20% on 2015-10-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-10-14
  • danielfilan estimated 33% on 2015-10-14
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 50% and said “Does a mission that fails en route count? What about one that fails on launch? What about one that makes it to Mars, but crashes? on 2015-12-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2016-01-14
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% on 2016-01-14
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 55% on 2016-01-17
  • themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-04-30
  • JoshuaZ said “Recent plans by SpaceX raise a potential issue that might have previously been a very low probability edge case: do agencies only include governments? Do private corporations count? The Longbet doesn’t really make it clear. on 2016-04-30
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
  • themusicgod1 estimated 56% and said “oh i’m on this one already. hrmon 2016-10-07

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