“Hurricanes in Florida will be less in 2005-2015, than the average of the preceding three decades”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/388” on 2010-08-02
• Larks estimated 50% on 2010-09-30
• gwern said “looks like all the big hurricanes went north: http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/what-world-was-like-hurricane-wilma-florida-2005” on 2016-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.