“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-02
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/426on 2010-08-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-05-24
  • Tuxedage estimated 15% on 2012-12-31
  • btrettel estimated 75% on 2015-09-04
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 80% and said “It says net energy and produces electricity for the grid.on 2016-01-21
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% and said “I think in general it’s better to phrase predictions positively than negatively.on 2016-01-21
  • PlacidPlatypus said “(My percentage is for the prediction as currently worded, I just wish it was otherwise.)on 2016-01-21
  • themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-07-09

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