“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/426” on 2010-08-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-05-24
• Tuxedage estimated 15% on 2012-12-31
• btrettel estimated 75% on 2015-09-04
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 80% and said “It says net energy and produces electricity for the grid.” on 2016-01-21
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% and said “I think in general it’s better to phrase predictions positively than negatively.” on 2016-01-21
• PlacidPlatypus said “(My percentage is for the prediction as currently worded, I just wish it was otherwise.)” on 2016-01-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-07-09
• regex estimated 40% on 2017-09-22
• davatk estimated 35% on 2018-04-26
• pranomostro estimated 35% on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 30% on 2019-01-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 28% and said “Updating based on recent progress in fusion and present of many new fusion startups.” on 2022-10-31
• Baeboo estimated 26% on 2022-11-01