“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/522” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “might be hard to judge this one” on 2010-08-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-01-13
• Bruno Parga said “I’d say both the second and third parts are dubious enough that the whole thing is wrong. (Also the first one might be clearly wrong, I don’t know.)” on 2019-12-30
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-08.