“California state government will dissolve in default.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

  • gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-02
  • gwern said “California is too big to default that quickly, if it’s even legally allowed to do so.on 2010-08-02
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/488on 2010-08-02
  • anonym estimated 4% on 2010-11-27
  • gimpf estimated 10% on 2010-12-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-01-04
  • Isaac estimated 10% on 2011-12-11
  • bobpage estimated 0% on 2011-12-12
  • Tiresias estimated 0% on 2011-12-20
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.

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