“Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.” —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-28.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “ http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html ” on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/314” on 2010-08-03
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 20% on 2011-04-09
• gwern said “I’ve read enough that http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/26/irans-president-cleric-at-odds-over-nukes/ the program is not abandoned and the civilian program is not ‘mastered’. marking wrong.” on 2011-07-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-28.