“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “ http://kottke.org/04/04/google-operating-system ” on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/323” on 2010-08-03
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 20% on 2012-04-29
• RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “They can’t even beat Apple” on 2012-04-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2012-04-29
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2012-04-30
• lukas estimated 13% and said “no!!!” on 2012-05-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 36% on 2016-10-07
• themusicgod1 said “wouldn’t that be ARAMCO?” on 2017-07-16
• two2thehead estimated 30% on 2017-07-16
• gwern said “One can debate ‘most important’, but ‘biggest’ if defined by market cap definitely wrong: $650b vs eg Apple’s $815b, never mind Saudi ARAMCO’s hypothetical market cap.” on 2017-08-07
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-08-07.