“At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010.” —Nate Silver

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-03.

• gwern estimated 75% on 2010-08-04
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/261 http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/it-aint-easy-being-governor.html” on 2010-08-04
• gwern said “governors are a traditional recruiting source, and republican governors aren’t tainted so much by being the ‘party of no’” on 2010-08-04
• Larks estimated 80% on 2011-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 82% on 2012-03-02
• Anubhav said “Joshua: What? The answer’s known by now! (Although I’m not going to look it up.)” on 2012-03-02
• Anubhav   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-03.
• Anubhav said “Only Mitt Romney’s ever been a Governor according to wiki, and he was elected in 2003.” on 2012-03-03