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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates

Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.

  • gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-07
  • gwern said “http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/06/bill-gates-education/” on 2010-08-07
  • gwern said “The difficulty with this one is judging it.” on 2010-08-07
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “Edx, Coursera, other MOOCS. This has happened.” on 2015-07-04
  • Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2015-07-04.
  • btrettel   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-07-04.
  • btrettel said “Wait until the date.” on 2015-07-04
  • btrettel said “Also, I would contest that the lectures online are better than those at any university. And the available lectures are not comprehensive for many fields. Online education stills has a long way to go.” on 2015-07-04
  • gwern said “moocs still exist and some courses are really good, esp in machine learning, but I’m not sure. would you trade stanford or mit classes for the online versions? This really was an underspecified prediction… maybe it should be drawn.” on 2015-08-07
  • btrettel said “Yes, I think withdrawing this prediction is justified.” on 2015-08-07
  • Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2015-08-08.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-10.
  • JoshuaZ said “Sufficiently unclear. Leave as unknown. ” on 2015-08-10
  • mayanju estimated 80% on 2015-08-19
  • Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2015-09-08.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-09-09.
  • argothiel estimated 100% and said “You are able to find the best lectures in the world on the web. Whatever single university you choose, online lectures (in total) are better than this university.” on 2015-10-25
  • argothiel   judged this prediction right on 2015-10-25.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-10-25.
  • JoshuaZ said “That is not at all an obvious assertion!” on 2015-10-25
  • argothiel said “It’s because “it will be better than” and “best lectures in the world” are just opinions.” on 2015-10-25
  • Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2015-11-30.