“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “US bankruptcy: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1626 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1627 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1628” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “UK: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1630 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1631” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=728843&z=1281598598276 at 0% (? not trading)” on 2010-08-12
• benj estimated 20% on 2010-08-26
• gimpf estimated 1% on 2010-12-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.