“…a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” —Jeffrey Goldberg

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-31.

  • gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-13
  • gwern said “http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/8186/on 2010-08-13
  • gimpf estimated 30% and said “What is “launch a strike” exactly? There were times in Europe when Austria agreed that attacks with less then 3500 man are irrelevant…on 2010-12-13
  • gwern said “no attack of any kind unless we want to count stuxnet or the scientist assassinations as attacks, which are probbaly Israeli and clearly not a US military strike in this sense. marking wrong.on 2011-07-31
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-31.

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