“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=706212&z=1281870688026 at 30%” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1643” on 2010-08-15
• gimpf estimated 50% on 2010-12-13
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 25% on 2011-07-14
• gwern said “currently trading 0-1%. might as well mark it wrong.” on 2012-01-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-05.