“Average Global Temperature for 2013 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-05.

• gwern estimated 62% on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=706206&z=1281871538230 at 62%” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1649 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1647 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1646” on 2010-08-15
• waveman estimated 10% and said “As at end November it was the 6th warmest for the first 11 months with a gap of .02 degrees C. December would have had to have been the hottest December on record to move to 5th place. So, unlikely.” on 2014-01-01
• gwern said “expired at zero, apparently; marking wrong” on 2014-01-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-05.