US health-care expenditure <=$4 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-18
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dq7?c=1” on 2010-08-18
• orthonormal   judged this prediction right on 2019-12-31.
• orthonormal said “3.6 trillion!” on 2019-12-31