“I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.” —Richard Kennaway

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01

• gwern estimated 95% on 2010-08-18
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dq9?c=1” on 2010-08-18
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1671” on 2010-08-19

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