A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020.

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01

• Richard_Kennaway estimated 99% on 2010-08-18
• Richard_Kennaway changed their prediction from “A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020.” on 2010-08-18
• Richard_Kennaway changed their prediction from “A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. By “general purpose AI” I mean what is also called “Strong AI” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI) or “AGI” (http://” on 2010-08-18
• Richard_Kennaway said “Also called “Strong AI” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_AI)) or “AGI” (http://www.agiri.org/)).” on 2010-08-18
• gwern estimated 95% on 2010-08-19
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1670” on 2010-08-19
• Larks estimated 98% on 2010-09-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-17
• Ken estimated 1% on 2011-09-13
• Grognor estimated 98% on 2011-12-06
• Tuxedage estimated 97% on 2013-01-03

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