“By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected.” —Kevin

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-19
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dvp?c=1” on 2010-08-19
• ggreer estimated 75% and said ““Earth-like” is vague, but I’ll consider anything with liquid water close enough.” on 2010-09-30
• gwern said “http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/01/11/kepler_exoplanet/ but way too close to its sun for life as we know it or liquid water” on 2011-01-11
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-10
• Baeboo estimated 35% on 2018-12-12
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_potentially_habitable_exoplanets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumstellar_habitable_zone#Near_Earth-sized_planets_and_Solar_analogs K2-18b has water vapour in its atmosphere.” on 2020-01-01
• pranomostro said “I agree with ggreer, resolve it positively.” on 2020-01-07
• pranomostro   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-07.