“By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected.” —Kevin
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-01
- gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-19
- gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dvp?c=1” on 2010-08-19
- ggreer estimated 75% and said ““Earth-like” is vague, but I’ll consider anything with liquid water close enough.” on 2010-09-30
- gwern said “http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/01/11/kepler_exoplanet/ but way too close to its sun for life as we know it or liquid water” on 2011-01-11
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