Conditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. —Jack

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.

• gwern estimated 95% on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dwa?c=1” on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1680” on 2010-08-20
• pranomostro estimated 98% on 2019-01-10
• pranomostro estimated 99% on 2019-01-10
• Pablo estimated 100% on 2019-12-31
• Bruno Parga said “Should the prediction be <= rather than >=?” on 2020-01-01
• pranomostro said “Clearly true.” on 2020-02-09
• pranomostro   judged this prediction right on 2020-02-09.