“By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)” —Jack

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dwa?c=1” on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1684” on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dwa?c=1” on 2010-08-20

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