“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1” on 2010-08-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-06-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2016-10-07
• aseyfarth estimated 4% and said “No sign of it so far, and we’re over half way through the period” on 2017-01-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2017-01-30
• gwern estimated 4% and said “The IQ PGSes are good enough, GenPred is now offering ES for stuff excluding IQ, 10k is well within Chinese IVF capabilities… but, not yet ever done, He Jiankui backlash, and only 1 year left for 0→10k.” on 2018-12-11
• Baeboo estimated 4% on 2018-12-12
• pranomostro estimated 2% and said “https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/11/crispr-bombshell-chinese-researcher-claims-have-created-gene-edited-twins” on 2019-01-10
• elephantower   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-31.
• elephantower said “I wish I was around in 2010 to bet against these ridiculous predictions” on 2019-12-31
• elephantower said “source for judgement: https://www.npr.org/2019/12/30/792340177/chinese-researcher-who-created-gene-edited-babies-sentenced-to-3-years-in-prison3 chinese embryos have been genetically modified” on 2019-12-31