“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1” on 2010-08-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-06-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% 12 days ago
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% 11 days ago

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