“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by ggreer on 2010-09-30.

• gwern estimated 3% on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1” on 2010-08-21
• Larks estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
• ggreer  judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-30.
• ggreer  judged this prediction unknown on 2010-09-30.
• ggreer estimated 95% on 2010-09-30
• ggreer estimated 5% on 2010-09-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-01-02
• Grognor estimated 10% on 2011-12-06
• Grognor estimated 5% and said “I mean, no, not 10%” on 2011-12-06
• saturn estimated 0% on 2011-12-11
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-10-14
• bobpage estimated 0% and said “too many hidden conjunctions” on 2013-11-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-11-16
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-11-16
• adbge estimated 1% on 2013-11-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% 12 days ago

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